VA-01 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 56% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rob WittmanRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Shannon TaylorD | |
| Jason KnappD | |
| Salaam BhattiD | |
| Mel TullD | |
| Elizabeth Dempsey BeggsD | |
| Tim CywinskiD | not yet filing |
| Ericka KoppD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Rob Wittman (R) running, no GOP primary opponent. CYCLE NOTE: Virginia's 2026 congressional primary was MOVED from June to Aug 4, 2026 (HB29, amid mid-decade redistricting fight); NOT yet held as of June 25. Seven Democrats in a contested Aug 4 primary; Shannon Taylor (Henrico Commonwealth's Attorney) is a leading contender but field is crowded, so all D are 'candidate'. ~R+3. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VA-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →