AkashicVA-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 57%; raw Republican YES price 44%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rob WittmanRIncumbentNominee | |
| Shannon TaylorDNominee | |
| Jason KnappD | |
| Salaam BhattiD | |
| Mel TullD | |
| Elizabeth Dempsey BeggsD |
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VA-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →