AkashicVA-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 24%; raw Republican YES price 76%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| John McGuireRIncumbentNominee | |
| Tom PerrielloDNominee | |
| Chris RegisterIndependentNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Aug 4 primary not yet held; both primaries contested. GOP: incumbent John McGuire vs. Melanie Lucero. Democratic: former Rep. Tom Perriello, Suzanne Krzyzanowski, Robert Tracinski. McGuire and Perriello are the most prominent on each side but neither nomination is settled. Independent Chris Register has declared. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VA-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+5 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →