WA-04 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 87% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 9-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Amanda McKinneyR | |
| Jerrod SesslerR | |
| John DureskyD | |
| Matt BoehnkeR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Dan Newhouse announced (2025-12-17) he will not seek re-election. Safe-R central WA seat; top-two primary 2026-08-04 likely advances two Republicans. Jerrod Sessler (narrowly lost to Newhouse 2024), state Sen. Matt Boehnke, and Yakima Co. commissioner Amanda McKinney lead a crowded R field; John Duresky is the notable Democrat. Many minor candidates omitted. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WA-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+98 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →