WA-05 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 85% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 15-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Michael BaumgartnerRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Carmela ConroyD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Eastern Washington (Spokane). Incumbent Michael Baumgartner (R, elected 2024 after Cathy McMorris Rodgers retired) running for re-election. Washington uses a TOP-TWO primary on Aug 4, 2026 (not yet held); the top two finishers regardless of party advance. Crowded field (~9-13 candidates). Carmela Conroy (D, Spokane County Dem chair, 2024 runner-up) is the leading Democrat and likely to be the second general-election finisher behind Baumgartner. Both listed pending the top-two result. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WA-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →