AkashicWA-09 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 93%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Adam SmithDIncumbentNominee | |
| Doug BaslerRNominee | not yet filing |
| Kshama SawantIndependent (Workers Strike Back) | |
| Melissa ChaudhryD | not yet filing |
| Janis ClarkR | not yet filing |
| C. Mark GreeneR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Top-two primary 2026-08-04 (two advance regardless of party). Incumbent Adam Smith (D) in safe-D Seattle/SeaTac seat. Notable left challenger Kshama Sawant (former Seattle city councilmember, running Independent/Workers Strike Back). Given the D lean, the general could pit Smith vs. Sawant or another non-Republican. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WA-09 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →