WY-AL — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Reid RasnerR | |
| Chuck GrayR | |
| Jillian BalowR | |
| Lisa F. KinneyD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Harriet Hageman (R) is running for the U.S. Senate, vacating the House seat. Primary Aug 18, 2026 (not yet held), so candidates are contenders, not nominees. Crowded Republican field; Secretary of State Chuck Gray, former Superintendent Jillian Balow, and businessman Reid Rasner are among the notable contenders (Wyoming has no primary runoff, so a plurality could win). Lisa F. Kinney is the leading Democrat. Safe-Republican statewide seat. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WY-AL place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+47 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+46 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →