Alaska — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — U.S. Senate yet.
When a liquid two-party market opens on Polymarket for this race, its implied odds will appear here beside our model. We show only real market prices — never an estimated one.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AK state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+79 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | Independent / other | R+12 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Sullivan 47·Peltola 45 | R+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,946 LV | Peltola 52·Sullivan 48 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | — LV | Peltola 51·Sullivan 47 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19–22 | 1,283 LV | Peltola 52·Sullivan 48 | D+5 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →