AkashicAlaska — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — U.S. Senate yet.
When a liquid market opens on Polymarket, its raw outcome prices will appear here. We never infer a missing party price or renormalize away independent and Other outcomes.
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Dan SullivanRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Mary PeltolaDNominee | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Top-four primary Aug 18; RCV general. Preliminary: ex-Rep. Mary Peltola (D) 48.1%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 42.7%; the 3rd/4th slots (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Leslie/Heikes by ~17 votes) remain provisional until the Aug 28 count and Aug 31 withdrawal deadline. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+79 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | Independent / other | R+12 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 2–5 | 1,371 LV | Peltola 51·Sullivan 49 | D+2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Sullivan 47·Peltola 45 | R+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,946 LV | Peltola 52·Sullivan 48 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | — LV | Peltola 51·Sullivan 47 | D+4 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →