AkashicAlabama — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 5%; raw Republican YES price 95%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Barry MooreRNominee | for | |
| Everett WessDNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Tommy Tuberville (R) is not running for re-election; he is running for Governor of Alabama. Primary was May 19, 2026 with June 16, 2026 runoffs (no candidate hit a majority); Moore won the GOP runoff (55.8%) and Wess won the Democratic runoff (54.6%). No third-party/independent candidate confirmed on the general ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →