Florida — U.S. Senate (special)
The call
We expect Republicans to win this special.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 89% chance to win this special.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 18-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley MoodyRIncumbentPresumptive | for against | |
| Alex VindmanDPresumptive | for | |
| Angie NixonD | — | |
| Chris GleasonR | not yet filing | — |
| Neelam Taneja PerryR | not yet filing | — |
| Ernie RiveraR | not yet filing | — |
| Neil GillespieIndependent | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. SPECIAL election (Class 1) to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's term; Rubio resigned to become Secretary of State and Gov. DeSantis appointed AG Ashley Moody (R), who is the appointed incumbent and is running. Primary is Aug 18, 2026 (not yet held as of 2026-06-25); filing closed April 24, 2026. Moody is the GOP frontrunner; Vindman is the Democratic frontrunner. Independent Neil J. Gillespie qualified for the general ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | Even |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 49·Vindman 42 | R+7 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 51·Nixon 38 | R+13 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 406 LV | Moody 50·Vindman 43 | R+7 |
| MDW Communications | Mar 27 – Apr 3 | 1,834 LV | Moody 43·Vindman 42 | R+1 |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–31 | 1,125 LV | Moody 46·Vindman 38 | R+8 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →