Akashic2026 forecast
Florida — U.S. Senate (special)
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win this special.
Safe R
96%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 11%; raw Republican YES price 90%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Total volume
$61k
Liquidity
$35k
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley MoodyRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Angie NixonDNominee | — | |
| Eddy RojasNo Party AffiliationNominee | not yet filing | — |
| Alex VindmanDPresumptive |
The substrate
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Florida
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | even |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR |
Public polling · 6 pollsno average shown
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida PORL | Jul 8–17 | 848 LV | Moody 50·Nixon 42 | R+8 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 49·Vindman 42 | R+7 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 51·Nixon 38 | R+13 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 406 LV | Moody 50· |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →