AkashicIowa — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 44%; raw Republican YES price 57%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Josh TurekDNominee | for | |
| Ashley HinsonRNominee | for | |
| Thomas LaehnLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat; incumbent Joni Ernst (R) not seeking re-election (announced 2025-09-02), excluded. Hinson won the GOP primary (73.9%); Turek won the Dem primary (62.6%). Libertarian Thomas Laehn qualified via petition. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Hinson 48·Turek 46 | R+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 377 LV | Wahls 46·Hinson 44 | D+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 377 LV | Turek 46·Hinson 45 | D+1 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →