AkashicLouisiana — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 7%; raw Republican YES price 93%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John FlemingR | — | |
| Julia LetlowR | for against | |
| Jamie DavisD | — | |
| Gary CrockettD | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Louisiana switched from the top-two jungle primary to closed/semi-closed partisan primaries for federal races in 2026 (HB 17, first change since 1978). First-round party primaries were held May 16, 2026; no candidate hit 50% in either party, so June 27, 2026 runoffs (after this audit date) will set the nominees: GOP Letlow (44.8%) vs Fleming (28.3%); Dem Crockett vs Davis. Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) finished 3rd (24.8%) and was eliminated, making this effectively an open seat for the GOP nomination; the four listed are contested runoff candidates, not yet nominees. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →