Louisiana — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John FlemingR | — | |
| Julia LetlowR | for against | |
| Jamie DavisD | — | |
| Gary CrockettD | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Louisiana switched from the top-two jungle primary to closed/semi-closed partisan primaries for federal races in 2026 (HB 17, first change since 1978). First-round party primaries were held May 16, 2026; no candidate hit 50% in either party, so June 27, 2026 runoffs (after this audit date) will set the nominees: GOP Letlow (44.8%) vs Fleming (28.3%); Dem Crockett vs Davis. Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) finished 3rd (24.8%) and was eliminated, making this effectively an open seat for the GOP nomination; the four listed are contested runoff candidates, not yet nominees. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the LA state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →