AkashicMassachusetts — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 95%; raw Republican YES price 3%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John DeatonRPresumptive | — | |
| Ed MarkeyDIncumbent | for | |
| Seth MoultonD | — | |
| Nathan BechR | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. September 1, 2026 primary not yet held. Incumbent Ed Markey (D) is running for a third full term and faces a genuinely competitive primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton (polls tightened to ~5 pts by May 2026), so neither is a cleared-field frontrunner. On the GOP side, John Deaton is the cleared-field presumptive nominee (MassGOP-endorsed); Nathan Bech is a minor declared challenger. Race rated Safe Democratic. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+20 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+33 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →