Maine — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Democrats, our model to the Republicans — a 25-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Susan CollinsRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Graham PlatnerDNominee | for against |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. June 9, 2026 primary held. Graham Platner won the Democratic nomination with ~72% after Gov. Janet Mills suspended her campaign (Apr 30, name stayed on the ballot) and Jordan Wood withdrew to run for U.S. House (ME-02); David Costello also lost. Susan Collins (R incumbent) is unopposed for renomination and seeks a sixth term. No independent/third-party candidate confirmed as qualified for the November 3 general election as of this date. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the ME state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Independent / other | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+9 |
| 2018 | Independent / other | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2012 | Independent / other | R+17 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Platner 49·Collins 47 | D+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 378 LV | Platner 51·Collins 45 | D+6 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 378 LV | Mills 48·Collins 46 | D+2 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Mar 20–31 | 1,167 LV | Platner 48·Collins 39 | D+9 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Mar 20–31 | 1,167 LV | Collins 45·Mills 42 | R+3 |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,075 LV | Platner 48·Collins 41 | D+7 |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,075 LV | Mills 46·Collins 43 | D+4 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →