AkashicMaine — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Graham Platner won the June 9 Democratic primary but withdrew amid sexual-assault allegations; former state Senate President Troy Jackson replaced him as the Democratic nominee. Against a refreshed Democratic line in a state Harris carried by 6.9, Sen. Collins (R) loses the benefit of the doubt: the race moves from Tilt R to Tilt D.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 68%; raw Republican YES price 34%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Susan CollinsRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Troy JacksonDNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Graham Platner won the June 9 primary with a record vote, then withdrew July 10 after a sexual-assault allegation he denies. Maine Democrats held a special nominating convention in Bangor July 25: former Senate President Troy Jackson won 566-5 and is formally the nominee on the November ballot. No independents qualified — a two-way Collins-Jackson race. Post-replacement polls: Fox News Jackson 48-46; Hart Research Jackson 49-45. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Independent / other | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+9 |
| 2018 | Independent / other | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2012 | Independent / other | R+17 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | Aug 6–10 | 1,000 RV | Jackson 48·Collins 46 | D+2 |
| Hart Research/Senate Majority PACD | Aug 1–5 | — LV | Jackson 49·Collins 45 | D+4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Platner 49·Collins 47 | D+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 378 LV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →