Michigan — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 70% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mike RogersRPresumptive | for against | |
| Haley StevensD | for | |
| Mallory McMorrowD | for | |
| Abdul El-SayedD | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term. Aug 4 primary not yet held as of 2026-06-25. The Democratic field is a contested 3-way race (Stevens, McMorrow, El-Sayed); Joe Tate withdrew and endorsed Stevens. Mike Rogers (Trump-endorsed, 2024 nominee) faces only token primary opposition, so he is marked presumptive. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | Even |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+21 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+29 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →