Akashic2026 forecast
Michigan — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Lean D
71%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 67%; raw Republican YES price 33%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Total volume
$145k
Liquidity
$55k
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mike RogersRNominee | for against | |
| Abdul El-SayedDNominee | for | |
| Haley StevensD | for | |
| Mallory McMorrowD |
The substrate
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Michigan
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | even |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+21 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →