Akashic2026 forecast
Minnesota — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Likely D
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Total volume
$34k
Liquidity
$44k
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Apr 29, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Peggy FlanaganDNominee | for | |
| Michele TafoyaRNominee | — | |
| Rebecca WhitingLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
| Angie CraigD | for |
The substrate
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Minnesota
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →