Minnesota — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 10-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Angie CraigD | for against | |
| Peggy FlanaganD | for | |
| Michele TafoyaR | — | |
| Adam SchwarzeR | — | |
| Royce WhiteR | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Tina Smith (D) is not seeking re-election. DFL = the Democratic Party, so DFL candidates are classified party 'D'. Aug 11 primary not yet held. DFL primary contested: Peggy Flanagan won the DFL endorsement by acclamation (May 30) but Angie Craig skipped the endorsement process and goes straight to the primary with a financial advantage — no single presumptive nominee. Melisa Lopez Franzen withdrew. GOP primary also contested: Adam Schwarze won the party endorsement, but Michele Tafoya (poll leader, NRSC-backed) and Royce White (2024 nominee) are continuing to the primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MN state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | Even |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →