Montana — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Kurt Alme (R) is favored after Sen. Daines withdrew at the filing deadline. Independent Seth Bodnar — backed by former Sen. Jon Tester — is the live alternative; the Democrat is non-viable. Caucus modeled at 50% neither / 25% each party (a free-agent independent who could organize with whoever offers more).
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market prices each major party separately here — Democrats at 1%, Republicans at 88% to win.
Our model rates this race around the independent, Seth Bodnar, so a two-party model-vs-market comparison doesn’t apply — the independent trades in a separate market. The rest of the probability sits with them; see the full market on Polymarket.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Seth BodnarIndependentNominee | for against | |
| Kurt AlmeRNominee | against | |
| Alani BankheadDNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Sen. Daines (R) withdrew at the March 5 filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme, who won the June 2 GOP primary. Independent Seth Bodnar (ex-UM president) is a major candidate, with support from former Sen. Jon Tester. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MT state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+4 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+4 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+46 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →