AkashicMontana — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Kurt Alme (R) remains favored after Sen. Daines withdrew at the filing deadline, but only narrowly: independent Seth Bodnar — backed by former Sen. Jon Tester — is the true threat to win, not the Democratic line, which is non-viable. The live Alme-versus-Bodnar contest tightens the race from Lean R to Tilt R. Caucus modeled at 50% neither / 25% each party (a free-agent independent who could organize with whoever offers more).
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 1%; raw Republican YES price 80%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Seth BodnarIndependentNominee | for against | |
| Kurt AlmeRNominee | against | |
| Alani BankheadDNominee | — | |
| Kyle AustinLibertarianNominee |
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+4 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+4 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →