AkashicNorth Carolina — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 89%; raw Republican YES price 12%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Roy CooperDNominee | for against | |
| Michael WhatleyRNominee | for | |
| Shannon BrayLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
| Brian McGinnisGreenNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN: Thom Tillis (R) not seeking re-election. Cooper (D, ex-gov) ~92% vs Whatley (R, ex-RNC chair) ~64.6%. Top toss-up. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 43 | D+7 |
| Opinion DiagnosticsR | Apr 21–24 | 830 LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 41 | D+9 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | Mar 26 – Apr 6 | 703 LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 42 | D+8 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | Mar 26 – Apr 6 | 800 RV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →