North Carolina — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 87% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 9-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Roy CooperDNominee | for against | |
| Michael WhatleyRNominee | for | |
| Shannon BrayLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
| Brian McGinnisGreenNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN: Thom Tillis (R) not seeking re-election. Cooper (D, ex-gov) ~92% vs Whatley (R, ex-RNC chair) ~64.6%. Top toss-up. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NC state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 43 | D+7 |
| Opinion DiagnosticsR | Apr 21–24 | 830 LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 41 | D+9 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | Mar 26 – Apr 6 | 703 LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 42 | D+8 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | Mar 26 – Apr 6 | 800 RV | Cooper 49·Whatley 39 | D+10 |
| YouGov | Mar 9–18 | 871 LV | Cooper 48·Whatley 34 | D+14 |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 13–14 | 556 RV | Cooper 47·Whatley 44 | D+3 |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions | Mar 8–9 | 800 LV | Cooper 50·Whatley 32 | D+18 |
| Change Research | Jan 31 – Feb 4 | 1,069 RV | Cooper 50·Whatley 40 | D+10 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →