Nebraska — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Dan Osborn (Independent) to win.
Independent Dan Osborn is the de facto challenger to Sen. Ricketts (R); the Democratic nominee has pledged to withdraw and back him, leaving a two-way between Osborn and the incumbent. Osborn says he would caucus with neither party; modeled at 50% neither / 25% each, a free agent who could organize with whoever offers more — the VP (R) breaks any resulting deadlock.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market prices each major party separately here — Democrats at 0%, Republicans at 73% to win.
Our model rates this race around the independent, Dan Osborn, so a two-party model-vs-market comparison doesn’t apply — the independent trades in a separate market. The rest of the probability sits with them; see the full market on Polymarket.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Pete RickettsRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Dan OsbornIndependentNominee | for against |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Independent Dan Osborn qualified for the ballot June 11 and is the de facto challenger to Sen. Ricketts (R). Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank has pledged to withdraw to back Osborn. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NE state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+39 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2012 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 8–11 | 1,165 LV | Osborn 47·Ricketts 42 | — |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →