AkashicNebraska — U.S. Senate
We expect Dan Osborn to win58%The call
We expect Dan Osborn (Independent) to win.
Independent Dan Osborn is the de facto challenger to Sen. Ricketts (R). Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank formally declined the nomination and the Nebraska Secretary of State confirmed she will not appear on the November ballot. The forecast therefore treats the Democratic line as non-viable and models the live contest as Osborn versus Ricketts. Osborn says he would caucus with neither party; modeled at 50% neither / 25% each, a free agent who could organize with whoever offers more — the VP (R) breaks any resulting deadlock.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 0%; raw Republican YES price 71%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Pete RickettsRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Dan OsbornIndependentNominee | for against |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Independent Dan Osborn is the de facto challenger to Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank formally declined the nomination and will not appear on Nebraska’s November 2026 U.S. Senate ballot; there is no Democratic nominee in the general election. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 8–11 | 1,165 LV | Osborn 47·Ricketts 42 | — |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →