AkashicNew Hampshire — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 84%; raw Republican YES price 17%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Chris PappasDPresumptive | for against | |
| John E. SununuR | for against | |
| Scott BrownR | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking re-election. Primary Sept 8 (not yet held). Rep. Chris Pappas is the clear Democratic frontrunner; former Sen. John E. Sununu leads former Sen. Scott Brown for the GOP nod. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | even |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,100 LV | Pappas 45·Sununu 44 | D+2 |
| Saint Anselm | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | Pappas 46·Sununu 43 | D+3 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →