New Hampshire — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 84% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Chris PappasDPresumptive | for against | |
| John E. SununuR | for against | |
| Scott BrownR | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking re-election. Primary Sept 8 (not yet held). Rep. Chris Pappas is the clear Democratic frontrunner; former Sen. John E. Sununu leads former Sen. Scott Brown for the GOP nod. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NH state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | Even |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,100 LV | Pappas 45·Sununu 44 | D+2 |
| Saint Anselm | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | Pappas 46·Sununu 43 | D+3 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →