AkashicOregon — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 97%; raw Republican YES price 4%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff MerkleyDIncumbentNominee | for | |
| David Brock SmithRNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Merkley (D) 4th term, ~93.2%. David Brock Smith (R state sen). Solid D. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+18 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2010 | DemocraticD | D+18 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →