South Dakota — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mike RoundsRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Brian BengsIndependentNominee | — | |
| Julian BeaudionDNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary 2026-06-02. Rounds won GOP ~75.8%. Beaudion (NOT Ahlers) is the Dem nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the SD state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+25 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →