AkashicSouth Dakota — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 4%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mike RoundsRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Brian BengsIndependentNominee | — | |
| Julian BeaudionDNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary 2026-06-02. Rounds won GOP ~75.8%. Beaudion (NOT Ahlers) is the Dem nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+25 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →