AkashicTennessee — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 3%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Bill HagertyRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Marquita BradshawDNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Hagerty unopposed in the Aug. 6 GOP primary. Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee, won the Democratic primary with 54.8% — a Hagerty-Bradshaw rematch. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2012 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →