Virginia — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mark WarnerDIncumbentPresumptive | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. VA moved primary to Aug 4 2026 (HB29) — NOT yet held. Warner (D) sole filer, presumptive. GOP primary contested (Mizusawa/Farington/Williams). Mark Moran independent qualified. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VA state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+12 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+31 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →