West Virginia — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 98% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Shelley Moore CapitoRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Rachel Fetty AndersonDNominee | — | |
| S. Marshall WilsonConstitutionNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Capito (R) 3rd term, won 66.5%. Rachel Fetty Anderson (D). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WV state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+41 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2010 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →