AkashicWyoming — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 3%; raw Republican YES price 95%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Harriet HagemanRNominee | for | |
| James W. ByrdDNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat — Sen. Cynthia Lummis retiring. Rep. Harriet Hageman won the Aug 18 GOP primary 64.9%; former state Rep. James Byrd won the Dem primary 79.3%. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+51 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+46 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+55 |
| 2012 | RepublicanR | R+54 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+51 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →