How did Roanoke-Lynchburg vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Roanoke-Lynchburg voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+27.7. Kamala D Harris received 214,836 votes and Donald Trump received 382,057 out of 602,794 total votes cast, a 3.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Roanoke-Lynchburg's political history?

Roanoke-Lynchburg has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. The largest single-election swing was 70.9 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of Roanoke-Lynchburg?

Roanoke-Lynchburg has a population of 4,487,242 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 79.1% non-Hispanic white, 2.7% Hispanic, 14.8% Black. About 23% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $46,620.

Which places are most similar to Roanoke-Lynchburg?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Roanoke-Lynchburg are Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-and, Springfield, MO, Tri-Cities, TN-VA. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Roanoke-Lynchburg

Blue Ridge corridor where ancestral Democratic roots meet a decades-long Republican realignment

The Roanoke-Lynchburg market spans the Blue Ridge Mountains and Piedmont foothills, blending mid-size urban centers with deeply rural counties that have shifted reliably toward Republican margins at the federal level since the 1990s.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 573

Population4.5M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

40.3y▲ 1.4

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

23.0%▼ 12.0

White79.1%
Black14.8%
Hispanic2.7%
Two or more2.4%
Asian1.4%
Other1.0%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Roanoke-LynchburgBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-and, Springfield, MO, and Tri-Cities, TN-VA.

8 visible matches

Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-and

Small-town rural republican 3

R+26.4

Similarity score89%

Springfield, MO

Small-town rural republican

R+49.9

Similarity score88%

Tri-Cities, TN-VA

Small-town rural republican

R+57.9

Similarity score87%

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Small-town rural republican

R+50.2

Similarity score86%

Charleston-Huntington

Small-town rural republican

R+47.3

Similarity score85%

Knoxville

Small-town rural republican

R+45.9

Similarity score85%

Johnstown-Altoona-State College

Small-town rural republican

R+39.0

Similarity score85%

Dayton

Small-town rural republican 3

R+24.7

Similarity score83%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Roanoke-Lynchburg

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Roanoke City	99K	D+23.6	25,737	15,787	42,128	1.7%
Montgomery	99K	D+3.5	23,811	22,179	46,767	1.9%
Roanoke City	98K	D+23.6	25,737	15,787	42,128	1.7%
Montgomery	97K	D+3.5	23,811	22,179	46,767	1.9%
Roanoke	97K	R+22.5	21,693	34,453	56,789	2.4%
Roanoke City	95K	D+23.6	25,737	15,787	42,128	1.7%
Roanoke	94K	R+22.5	21,693	34,453	56,789	2.4%
Roanoke City	93K	D+23.6	25,737	15,787	42,128	1.7%
Roanoke	90K	R+22.5	21,693	34,453	56,789	2.4%
Montgomery	89K	D+3.5	23,811	22,179	46,767	1.9%
Roanoke	86K	R+22.5	21,693	34,453	56,789	2.4%
Montgomery	84K	D+3.5	23,811	22,179	46,767	1.9%
Bedford	81K	R+50.4	12,414	38,017	50,830	2.1%
Lynchburg City	79K	R+7.9	16,664	19,574	36,715	1.5%
Lynchburg City	79K	R+7.9	16,664	19,574	36,715	1.5%
Bedford	77K	R+50.4	12,414	38,017	50,830	2.1%
Lynchburg City	71K	R+7.9	16,664	19,574	36,715	1.5%
Bedford	66K	R+50.4	12,414	38,017	50,830	2.1%
Lynchburg City	65K	R+7.9	16,664	19,574	36,715	1.5%
Pittsylvania	62K	R+43.1	9,599	24,310	34,100	1.4%
Pittsylvania	62K	R+43.1	9,599	24,310	34,100	1.4%
Pittsylvania	61K	R+43.1	9,599	24,310	34,100	1.4%
Bedford	60K	R+50.4	12,414	38,017	50,830	2.1%
Pittsylvania	60K	R+43.1	9,599	24,310	34,100	1.4%
Henry	58K	R+32.8	8,457	16,800	25,413	1.1%
Franklin	56K	R+45.3	8,321	22,319	30,912	1.3%
Henry	55K	R+32.8	8,457	16,800	25,413	1.1%
Campbell	55K	R+48.6	7,890	23,032	31,171	1.3%
Franklin	55K	R+45.3	8,321	22,319	30,912	1.3%
Campbell	55K	R+48.6	7,890	23,032	31,171	1.3%
Campbell	53K	R+48.6	7,890	23,032	31,171	1.3%
Henry	52K	R+32.8	8,457	16,800	25,413	1.1%
Campbell	51K	R+48.6	7,890	23,032	31,171	1.3%
Franklin	51K	R+45.3	8,321	22,319	30,912	1.3%
Henry	50K	R+32.8	8,457	16,800	25,413	1.1%
Danville City	48K	D+21.1	10,615	6,894	17,667	0.7%
Franklin	47K	R+45.3	8,321	22,319	30,912	1.3%
Danville City	45K	D+21.1	10,615	6,894	17,667	0.7%
Danville City	42K	D+21.1	10,615	6,894	17,667	0.7%
Danville City	42K	D+21.1	10,615	6,894	17,667	0.7%
Halifax	37K	R+21.1	6,984	10,741	17,844	0.7%
Halifax	35K	R+21.1	6,984	10,741	17,844	0.7%
Halifax	35K	R+21.1	6,984	10,741	17,844	0.7%
Pulaski	35K	R+44.7	4,830	12,732	17,690	0.7%
Pulaski	35K	R+44.7	4,830	12,732	17,690	0.7%
Pulaski	34K	R+44.7	4,830	12,732	17,690	0.7%
Botetourt	34K	R+45.1	5,915	15,796	21,893	0.9%
Pulaski	34K	R+44.7	4,830	12,732	17,690	0.7%
Halifax	34K	R+21.1	6,984	10,741	17,844	0.7%
Botetourt	33K	R+45.1	5,915	15,796	21,893	0.9%
Botetourt	32K	R+45.1	5,915	15,796	21,893	0.9%
Amherst	32K	R+36.5	5,429	11,742	17,303	0.7%
Amherst	32K	R+36.5	5,429	11,742	17,303	0.7%
Amherst	32K	R+36.5	5,429	11,742	17,303	0.7%
Amherst	31K	R+36.5	5,429	11,742	17,303	0.7%
Botetourt	30K	R+45.1	5,915	15,796	21,893	0.9%
Carroll	30K	R+63.3	2,925	13,152	16,160	0.7%
Carroll	29K	R+63.3	2,925	13,152	16,160	0.7%
Wythe	29K	R+59.5	3,075	12,267	15,439	0.6%
Carroll	29K	R+63.3	2,925	13,152	16,160	0.7%
Carroll	29K	R+63.3	2,925	13,152	16,160	0.7%
Wythe	29K	R+59.5	3,075	12,267	15,439	0.6%
Wythe	28K	R+59.5	3,075	12,267	15,439	0.6%
Wythe	28K	R+59.5	3,075	12,267	15,439	0.6%
Salem City	26K	R+19.3	5,237	7,769	13,148	0.5%
Salem City	25K	R+19.3	5,237	7,769	13,148	0.5%
Salem City	25K	R+19.3	5,237	7,769	13,148	0.5%
Salem City	25K	R+19.3	5,237	7,769	13,148	0.5%
Rockbridge	23K	R+33.8	4,160	8,468	12,752	0.5%
Rockbridge	22K	R+33.8	4,160	8,468	12,752	0.5%
Rockbridge	21K	R+33.8	4,160	8,468	12,752	0.5%
Rockbridge	21K	R+33.8	4,160	8,468	12,752	0.5%
Grayson	18K	R+62.2	1,503	6,544	8,104	0.3%
Giles	17K	R+54.5	2,069	7,102	9,234	0.4%
Radford City	17K	D+0.5	3,231	3,197	6,550	0.3%
Giles	17K	R+54.5	2,069	7,102	9,234	0.4%
Radford City	17K	D+0.5	3,231	3,197	6,550	0.3%
Giles	17K	R+54.5	2,069	7,102	9,234	0.4%
Appomattox	17K	R+51.0	2,324	7,243	9,642	0.4%
Giles	17K	R+54.5	2,069	7,102	9,234	0.4%
Alleghany	16K	R+48.1	2,114	6,093	8,277	0.3%
Radford City	16K	D+0.5	3,231	3,197	6,550	0.3%
Grayson	16K	R+62.2	1,503	6,544	8,104	0.3%
Alleghany	16K	R+48.1	2,114	6,093	8,277	0.3%
Radford City	16K	D+0.5	3,231	3,197	6,550	0.3%
Floyd	16K	R+37.2	2,968	6,551	9,625	0.4%
Floyd	16K	R+37.2	2,968	6,551	9,625	0.4%
Martinsville City	15K	D+22.6	3,435	2,155	5,658	0.2%
Appomattox	15K	R+51.0	2,324	7,243	9,642	0.4%
Grayson	15K	R+62.2	1,503	6,544	8,104	0.3%
Nelson	15K	R+7.5	4,298	5,004	9,388	0.4%
Grayson	15K	R+62.2	1,503	6,544	8,104	0.3%
Alleghany	15K	R+48.1	2,114	6,093	8,277	0.3%
Nelson	15K	R+7.5	4,298	5,004	9,388	0.4%
Floyd	15K	R+37.2	2,968	6,551	9,625	0.4%
Nelson	15K	R+7.5	4,298	5,004	9,388	0.4%
Martinsville City	15K	D+22.6	3,435	2,155	5,658	0.2%
Nelson	14K	R+7.5	4,298	5,004	9,388	0.4%
Appomattox	14K	R+51.0	2,324	7,243	9,642	0.4%
Floyd	14K	R+37.2	2,968	6,551	9,625	0.4%
Appomattox	14K	R+51.0	2,324	7,243	9,642	0.4%
Martinsville City	14K	D+22.6	3,435	2,155	5,658	0.2%
Martinsville City	14K	D+22.6	3,435	2,155	5,658	0.2%
Alleghany	13K	R+48.1	2,114	6,093	8,277	0.3%
Charlotte	12K	R+32.5	2,008	3,963	6,006	0.2%
Charlotte	12K	R+32.5	2,008	3,963	6,006	0.2%
Charlotte	12K	R+32.5	2,008	3,963	6,006	0.2%
Charlotte	11K	R+32.5	2,008	3,963	6,006	0.2%
Pocahontas	9K	R+50.3	927	2,889	3,901	0.2%
Pocahontas	9K	R+50.3	927	2,889	3,901	0.2%
Pocahontas	9K	R+50.3	927	2,889	3,901	0.2%
Pocahontas	8K	R+50.3	927	2,889	3,901	0.2%
Lexington City	8K	D+26.7	1,795	1,030	2,863	0.1%
Lexington City	7K	D+26.7	1,795	1,030	2,863	0.1%
Lexington City	7K	D+26.7	1,795	1,030	2,863	0.1%
Bland	7K	R+69.7	524	2,998	3,548	0.1%
Lexington City	7K	D+26.7	1,795	1,030	2,863	0.1%
Galax City	7K	R+43.9	753	1,946	2,717	0.1%
Galax City	7K	R+43.9	753	1,946	2,717	0.1%
Galax City	7K	R+43.9	753	1,946	2,717	0.1%
Bland	7K	R+69.7	524	2,998	3,548	0.1%
Galax City	7K	R+43.9	753	1,946	2,717	0.1%
Bland	7K	R+69.7	524	2,998	3,548	0.1%
Buena Vista City	7K	R+44.4	767	2,035	2,853	0.1%
Buena Vista City	7K	R+44.4	767	2,035	2,853	0.1%
Buena Vista City	6K	R+44.4	767	2,035	2,853	0.1%
Covington City	6K	R+33.3	818	1,642	2,475	0.1%
Legacy FIPS 51515	6K	E	0	0	0	0.0%
Legacy FIPS 51515	6K	E	0	0	0	0.0%
Buena Vista City	6K	R+44.4	767	2,035	2,853	0.1%
Bland	6K	R+69.7	524	2,998	3,548	0.1%
Covington City	6K	R+33.3	818	1,642	2,475	0.1%
Covington City	6K	R+33.3	818	1,642	2,475	0.1%
Covington City	6K	R+33.3	818	1,642	2,475	0.1%
Craig	5K	R+64.7	542	2,562	3,121	0.1%
Craig	5K	R+64.7	542	2,562	3,121	0.1%
Craig	5K	R+64.7	542	2,562	3,121	0.1%
Bath	5K	R+53.8	588	1,976	2,582	0.1%
Craig	5K	R+64.7	542	2,562	3,121	0.1%
Bath	5K	R+53.8	588	1,976	2,582	0.1%
Bath	5K	R+53.8	588	1,976	2,582	0.1%
Bath	4K	R+53.8	588	1,976	2,582	0.1%
Highland	3K	R+44.4	416	1,095	1,529	0.1%
Highland	2K	R+44.4	416	1,095	1,529	0.1%
Highland	2K	R+44.4	416	1,095	1,529	0.1%
Highland	2K	R+44.4	416	1,095	1,529	0.1%

146 countiesTotal votes: 2,411,176

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Roanoke-Lynchburg's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Roanoke-Lynchburg media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Roanoke-LynchburgCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 79.1%Black 14.8%Hispanic 2.7%Multiracial 1.8%Asian 1.4%

Group	Roanoke-Lynchburg	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	79.1%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(12)	14.8%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	2.7%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	1.8%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.4%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

52.2%(596.0K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -58.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	32.6%	62.5%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	10.2%	19.5%	—	—
Catholic	4.4%	8.4%	—	—
Other	2.9%	5.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.0%	3.8%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.2%	2.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	47.9%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Roanoke-Lynchburg media market? 4,487,242 residents across 146 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Roanoke-Lynchburg vs National4.5M residents

23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.5M

local

4.5MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.34%

local

1.34%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.0%

local

39.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$46,620

local

$46,620National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.1%

local

15.1%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

23.0%

local

23.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.4%

local

70.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.3 yrs

local

40.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.2%

local

13.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.1%

local

14.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.3%

local

3.3%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.8%

local

4.8%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

95.2%

local

95.2%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Roanoke-Lynchburg

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

66.9%

vs Previous

+0.6pp

Eligible Non-Voters

298K · 33.1%

Citizen VAP

900,861

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Roanoke-Lynchburg split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+21.2	R+37.5	16.3pp
President vs Governor	R+27.7	R+37.5	9.8pp
President vs Senate	R+27.7	R+21.2	6.5pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 22.9pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Roanoke-Lynchburg sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Virginia(State)West Virginia(State)

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