HarrisDemocratic21.1%1,043TrumpRepublican77.5%3,827OliverNonpartisan0.5%27
R+56.4- Lead
- 2,784
- Total
- 4,937
- vs nation
- R+54.9
- Turnout
- 63.4%
Akashiccounty
Box Butte County, NE
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.4% of 7,878 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.2%1,051TrumpRepublican77.0%4,002JorgensenLibertarian2.5%128
R+56.8- Lead
- 2,951
- Total
- 5,200
- vs nation
- R+61.2
- Turnout
- 68.3%
ClintonDemocratic19.6%965TrumpRepublican73.5%3,617JohnsonLibertarian4.7%230
R+53.9- Lead
- 2,652
- Total
- 4,924
- vs nation
- R+55.9
- Turnout
- 61.4%
ObamaDemocratic36.0%1,692RomneyRepublican61.0%2,869GrayLibertarian2.0%96
R+25.0- Lead
- 1,177
- Total
- 4,705
- vs nation
- R+28.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic37.9%1,886McCainRepublican58.9%2,932OtherAll other candidates3.2%161
R+21.0- Lead
- 1,046
- Total
- 4,979
- vs nation
- R+28.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic32.2%1,657BushRepublican65.9%3,396OtherAll other candidates1.9%99
R+33.8- Lead
- 1,739
- Total
- 5,152
- vs nation
- R+31.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.7%1,614BushRepublican63.0%3,208NaderGreen4.0%203
R+31.3- Lead
- 1,594
- Total
- 5,089
- vs nation
- R+31.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic35.8%1,782DoleRepublican49.4%2,458PerotReform14.0%695
R+13.6- Lead
- 676
- Total
- 4,975
- vs nation
- R+22.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 10,7142024 5-year
- Population density
- 10.0 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,075 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $68,8922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.5 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carbon County, WY · twin score 81.3
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 63.4%4,997 participants ÷ 7,878 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 39.8%–43.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,997 | 7,878 ± 164 | 63.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 3,408 | 7,627 ± 221 | 44.7% | Audited | A/A |
| 5,304 | 7,765 ± 208 | 68.3% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 3,694 | 8,120 ± 186 | 45.5% | Audited | A/A |
| 5,061 | 8,242 ± 169 | 61.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 4,705 | 8,314 | 56.6% | Derived | — | |
| 4,979 | 8,100 | 61.5% | Derived | — | |
| 5,152 | 7,886 extrapolated | 65.3% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Box Butte County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Box Butte County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Larry Marvin0—
Lynne Walz0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 8 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
8 precincts · 4,931 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -RURAL HEMINGFORD 015RURAL HEMINGFORD 015 | 109 | 650 | 8 | 767 | 14.2% | 84.7% | R+70.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 005ALLIANCE 005 | 175 | 581 | 7 | 763 | 22.9% | 76.1% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -RURAL ALLIANCE 011RURAL ALLIANCE 011 | 78 | 609 | 10 | 697 | 11.2% | 87.4% | R+76.2 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 006ALLIANCE 006 | 158 | 494 | 7 | 659 | 24.0% | 75.0% | R+51.0 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 004ALLIANCE 004 | 121 | 424 | 7 | 552 | 21.9% | 76.8% | R+54.9 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 001ALLIANCE 001 | 152 | 380 | 8 | 540 | 28.1% | 70.4% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 002ALLIANCE 002 | 134 | 377 | 7 | 518 | 25.9% | 72.8% | R+46.9 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE 003ALLIANCE 003 | 116 | 312 | 7 | 435 | 26.7% | 71.7% | R+45.1 |
presidential history
Party record book
Box Butte County, NE · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
62.2%
2,900 votes · D+25.5
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 59.4%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
78.1%
3,431 votes · R+56.3
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 78.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
2,900votes
62.2% of the vote · D+25.5
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 2,688 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
4,426votes
78.1% of the vote · R+56.3
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 4,011 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1916
+17.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+20.6 · U.S. D+3.1
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1908 · +15.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+61.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+56.8 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +55.9 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
OPaul StrommenState Senate · 47
Seats representing Box Butte County, NE. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 0 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+49.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+56.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 7.4 points more Republican than the rolls.
6,825 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−164 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,195 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,306 in average income, against $70,425 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+47.2 on average — 9.2 points more Democratic-leaning than Box Butte County, NE itself (R+56.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Scotts Bluff County, NE25R+47.5
- Dawes County, NE24R+46.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Scotts Bluff County, NE37
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +1 |
| 2012 | −38 |
| 2013 | −32 |
| 2014 | −40 |
| 2015 | −53 |
| 2016 | −189 |
| 2017 | −368 |
| 2018 | −117 |
| 2019 | +23 |
| 2021 | −165 |
| 2022 | +12 |
| 2023 | −11 |
| 2024 | −54 |
| 2025 | −164 |
Box Butte's sparse population and agricultural economy—centered on cattle and limited-irrigation farming—have produced some of Nebraska's most consistent Republican margins, topping 56 points in the 2024 presidential race.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.5 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 56.8 points in 2020. The 2024 margin was 56.4 points.
A population of 10,714, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,892 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carbon County and Dixon County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Carbon County
Wyoming
81.3twin score
12-yr trend2000–2024 trajectory≠ Swedish ancestry
Dixon County
Nebraska
78.4twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated
Montgomery County
Missouri
75.3twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ % Catholic
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Box Butte County, Nebraska. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/31013/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Box Butte County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Box Butte County, Nebraska vote in 2024?
In 2024, Box Butte County, Nebraska voted Republican by 56.4 points (R+56.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 4,937 votes cast, 1,043 went Democratic and 3,827 went Republican.
When did Box Butte County, Nebraska last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Box Butte County, Nebraska voted Democratic was 1936.
How many people live in Box Butte County, Nebraska?
Box Butte County, Nebraska has a population of 10,714 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Box Butte County, Nebraska?
Median household income in Box Butte County, Nebraska is $68,892 — below the national median of $80,734. The Nebraska state median is $76,475.
What is the political history of Box Butte County, Nebraska?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Box Butte County, Nebraska from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.