HarrisDemocratic26.7%6,386TrumpRepublican71.5%17,064OliverNonpartisan0.7%169
R+44.7- Lead
- 10,678
- Total
- 23,877
- vs nation
- R+43.2
- Turnout
- 64.1%
Akashiccounty
Buffalo County, NE
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.1% of 37,778 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic26.8%6,350TrumpRepublican70.2%16,640JorgensenLibertarian2.5%599
R+43.4- Lead
- 10,290
- Total
- 23,711
- vs nation
- R+47.9
- Turnout
- 65.1%
ClintonDemocratic22.5%4,763TrumpRepublican69.0%14,569JohnsonLibertarian5.6%1,174
R+46.4- Lead
- 9,806
- Total
- 21,129
- vs nation
- R+48.5
- Turnout
- 60.4%
ObamaDemocratic27.6%5,365RomneyRepublican69.8%13,570GrayLibertarian1.8%356
R+42.2- Lead
- 8,205
- Total
- 19,453
- vs nation
- R+46.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic30.4%5,867McCainRepublican67.9%13,097OtherAll other candidates1.7%329
R+37.5- Lead
- 7,230
- Total
- 19,293
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic22.0%4,100BushRepublican76.4%14,222OtherAll other candidates1.5%286
R+54.4- Lead
- 10,122
- Total
- 18,608
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic23.9%3,927BushRepublican72.5%11,931NaderGreen2.9%483
R+48.6- Lead
- 8,004
- Total
- 16,461
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic27.0%4,277DoleRepublican63.1%10,004PerotReform9.4%1,484
R+36.1- Lead
- 5,727
- Total
- 15,856
- vs nation
- R+44.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+44.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 50,5792024 5-year
- Population density
- 52 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 968 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $75,9112024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.9 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Adams County, NE · twin score 94.3
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 64.1%24,218 participants ÷ 37,778 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- -0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 42.3%–45.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24,218 | 37,778 ± 305 | 64.1% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 16,297 | 37,640 ± 296 | 43.3% | Audited | A/A |
| 23,943 | 36,790 ± 250 | 65.1% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 16,515 | 36,240 ± 296 | 45.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 21,587 | 35,746 ± 306 | 60.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 19,453 | 34,139 | 57.0% | Derived | — | |
| 19,293 | 33,150 | 58.2% | Derived | — | |
| 18,608 | 32,161 extrapolated | 57.9% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Buffalo County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Buffalo County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Larry Marvin0—
Lynne Walz0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 28 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 23,759 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -04 GOOD SHEPHERD LUTHERAN04 GOOD SHEPHERD LUTHERAN | 347 | 1,068 | 13 | 1,428 | 24.3% | 74.8% | R+50.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -05 EXHIBIT BLDG @ FAIRGROUNDS05 EXHIBIT BLDG @ FAIRGROUNDS | 370 | 854 | 24 | 1,248 | 29.6% | 68.4% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -03 1ST UNITED METHODIST CHURCH03 1ST UNITED METHODIST CHURCH | 406 | 820 | 14 | 1,240 | 32.7% | 66.1% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -13 PETERSON SR. CENTER13 PETERSON SR. CENTER | 351 | 797 | 19 | 1,167 | 30.1% | 68.3% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -01 NORTHSIDE COMMUNITY CHURCH01 NORTHSIDE COMMUNITY CHURCH | 314 | 751 | 12 | 1,077 | 29.2% | 69.7% | R+40.6 |
| Precinct -06 FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH06 FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH | 337 | 711 | 10 | 1,058 | 31.9% | 67.2% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -02 1ST PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH02 1ST PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH | 325 | 706 | 12 | 1,043 | 31.2% | 67.7% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -08 ST JAMES CATHOLIC CHURCH08 ST JAMES CATHOLIC CHURCH | 377 | 584 | 19 | 980 | 38.5% | 59.6% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -22 FAITH UNITED CHURCH22 FAITH UNITED CHURCH | 197 | 766 | 7 | 970 | 20.3% | 79.0% | R+58.7 |
| Precinct -09 1ST LUTHERAN CHURCH09 1ST LUTHERAN CHURCH | 309 | 648 | 12 | 969 | 31.9% | 66.9% | R+35.0 |
| Precinct -29 EXTENSION BLDG EXHIBIT HALL29 EXTENSION BLDG EXHIBIT HALL | 219 | 737 | 11 | 967 | 22.6% | 76.2% | R+53.6 |
| Precinct -17 CITY AUDITORIUM-RURAL17 CITY AUDITORIUM-RURAL | 188 | 752 | 20 | 960 | 19.6% | 78.3% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct -14 AMERICAN LEGION-BINGO HALL14 AMERICAN LEGION-BINGO HALL | 264 | 651 | 16 | 931 | 28.4% | 69.9% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -10 EXHIBIT BLDG @ FAIRGROUNDS10 EXHIBIT BLDG @ FAIRGROUNDS | 303 | 602 | 15 | 920 | 32.9% | 65.4% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -23 AMERICAN LEGION-BINGO HALL23 AMERICAN LEGION-BINGO HALL | 322 | 568 | 13 | 903 | 35.7% | 62.9% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -20 PRINCE OF PEACE20 PRINCE OF PEACE | 112 | 681 | 5 | 798 | 14.0% | 85.3% | R+71.3 |
| Precinct -12 ACTIVITY CENTER-HARMON PRK12 ACTIVITY CENTER-HARMON PRK | 283 | 453 | 14 | 750 | 37.7% | 60.4% | R+22.7 |
| Precinct -28 RIVERDALE COM CENTER28 RIVERDALE COM CENTER | 130 | 596 | 2 | 728 | 17.9% | 81.9% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -27 CORNERSTONE BEREAN CHURCH27 CORNERSTONE BEREAN CHURCH | 174 | 513 | 7 | 694 | 25.1% | 73.9% | R+48.8 |
| Precinct -11 MEADOWLARK MANOR11 MEADOWLARK MANOR | 238 | 418 | 8 | 664 | 35.8% | 63.0% | R+27.1 |
| Precinct -25 ELM CREEK VILLAGE CENTER25 ELM CREEK VILLAGE CENTER | 95 | 538 | 15 | 648 | 14.7% | 83.0% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -24 SHELTON MUNICIPAL BLDG24 SHELTON MUNICIPAL BLDG | 151 | 473 | 9 | 633 | 23.9% | 74.7% | R+50.9 |
| Precinct -07 ACTIVITY CENTER-HARMON PARK07 ACTIVITY CENTER-HARMON PARK | 220 | 398 | 8 | 626 | 35.1% | 63.6% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -16 PLEASANTON COM. CENTER16 PLEASANTON COM. CENTER | 98 | 521 | 3 | 622 | 15.8% | 83.8% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -19 AMHERST COM. CENTER19 AMHERST COM. CENTER | 70 | 521 | 8 | 599 | 11.7% | 87.0% | R+75.3 |
| Precinct -26 SPIRIT OF LIFE CHURCH26 SPIRIT OF LIFE CHURCH | 97 | 360 | 2 | 459 | 21.1% | 78.4% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct -21 COLONY ACRES COMM RM21 COLONY ACRES COMM RM | 58 | 305 | 4 | 367 | 15.8% | 83.1% | R+67.3 |
| Precinct -15 MILLER COM. HALL15 MILLER COM. HALL | 31 | 272 | 7 | 310 | 10.0% | 87.7% | R+77.7 |
presidential history
Party record book
Buffalo County, NE · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
59.2%
5,872 votes · D+21.2
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 55.6%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
78.1%
11,365 votes · R+56.9
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 77.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
6,386votes
26.7% of the vote · R+44.7
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 6,350 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
17,064votes
71.5% of the vote · R+44.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 16,640 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+19.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+13.7 · U.S. R+6.1
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · +10.9 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+51.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+54.4 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +49.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
OStan ClouseState Senate · 37
OFred MeyerState Senate · 41
Seats representing Buffalo County, NE. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 2 state senate and 0 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+45.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+44.7
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.5 points.
31,119 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−103 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −307 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,770 in average income, against $92,377 for residents who stayed — 45% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+38.5 on average — 6.2 points more Democratic-leaning than Buffalo County, NE itself (R+44.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dawson County, NE96R+49.4
- Lancaster County, NE90D+4.3
- Hall County, NE83R+37.6
- Kearney County, NE69R+57.9
- Lincoln County, NE58R+55.0
- Adams County, NE50R+41.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lancaster County, NE138
- Douglas County, NE100
- Kearney County, NE91
- Hall County, NE86
- Dawson County, NE55
- Phelps County, NE48
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +248 |
| 2012 | +312 |
| 2013 | −87 |
| 2014 | −323 |
| 2015 | −28 |
| 2016 | +91 |
| 2017 | −165 |
| 2018 | −314 |
| 2019 | +8 |
| 2021 | −91 |
| 2022 | +56 |
| 2023 | −67 |
| 2024 | +156 |
| 2025 | −103 |
Buffalo County, anchored by Kearney along the Platte River, has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, reflecting the heavily Republican tilt of Nebraska's rural interior despite hosting a regional university and retail hub.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 21.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 56.9 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 44.7 points.
A population of 50,579, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,911 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Adams County and Meade County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Adams County
Nebraska
94.3twin score
elasticity2000–2016 trajectory
Meade County
South Dakota
85.6twin score
2000–2012 trajectoryelasticity≠ % unaffiliated
Wayne County
Nebraska
84.2twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo County, Nebraska. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/31019/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Buffalo County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Buffalo County, Nebraska vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo County, Nebraska voted Republican by 44.7 points (R+44.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 23,877 votes cast, 6,386 went Democratic and 17,064 went Republican.
When did Buffalo County, Nebraska last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo County, Nebraska voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Buffalo County, Nebraska?
Buffalo County, Nebraska has a population of 50,579 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo County, Nebraska?
Median household income in Buffalo County, Nebraska is $75,911 — below the national median of $80,734. The Nebraska state median is $76,475.
What is the political history of Buffalo County, Nebraska?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Buffalo County, Nebraska from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.