HarrisDemocratic52.0%2,944TrumpRepublican45.5%2,574KennedyIndependent1.7%97
D+6.5- Lead
- 370
- Total
- 5,657
- vs nation
- D+8.0
- Turnout
- 47.6%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, SD
Contests in this Place (84 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 47.6% of 12,183 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic54.1%3,083TrumpRepublican43.1%2,456JorgensenLibertarian2.8%159
D+11.0- Lead
- 627
- Total
- 5,698
- vs nation
- D+6.5
- Turnout
- 51.2%
ClintonDemocratic51.4%2,608TrumpRepublican41.6%2,109JohnsonLibertarian5.8%295
D+9.8- Lead
- 499
- Total
- 5,069
- vs nation
- D+7.8
- Turnout
- 45.9%
ObamaDemocratic56.5%2,955RomneyRepublican41.0%2,147OtherAll other candidates2.5%132
D+15.4- Lead
- 808
- Total
- 5,234
- vs nation
- D+11.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic61.0%3,808McCainRepublican36.8%2,296OtherAll other candidates2.2%138
D+24.2- Lead
- 1,512
- Total
- 6,242
- vs nation
- D+17.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic54.0%3,315BushRepublican43.9%2,692OtherAll other candidates2.1%129
D+10.2- Lead
- 623
- Total
- 6,136
- vs nation
- D+12.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic51.7%2,638BushRepublican46.3%2,363OtherAll other candidates2.0%104
D+5.4- Lead
- 275
- Total
- 5,105
- vs nation
- D+4.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic53.5%2,980DoleRepublican36.0%2,008PerotReform9.1%505
D+17.4- Lead
- 972
- Total
- 5,572
- vs nation
- D+8.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 15,2192024 5-year
- Population density
- 37 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 412 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $56,8502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.2 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Story County, IA · twin score 92.7
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 47.6%5,801 participants ÷ 12,183 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +10.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 37.2%–40.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,801 | 12,183 ± 231 | 47.6% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 4,862 | 11,936 ± 190 | 40.7% | Audited | C/A |
| 5,768 | 11,273 ± 192 | 51.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 4,644 | 11,246 ± 200 | 41.3% | Audited | C/A |
| 5,206 | 11,352 ± 211 | 45.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 5,234 | 11,169 | 46.9% | Derived | — | |
| 6,242 | 10,906 | 57.2% | Derived | — | |
| 6,136 | 10,643 extrapolated | 57.7% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Clay County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Clay County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Dusty Johnson0—
Jon Hansen0—
Larry Rhoden0—
Toby Doeden0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 21 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
21 precincts · 5,657 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -0303 | 450 | 600 | 32 | 1,082 | 41.6% | 55.5% | R+13.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -S1S1 | 498 | 335 | 19 | 852 | 58.5% | 39.3% | D+19.1 |
| Precinct -W1W1 | 398 | 270 | 22 | 690 | 57.7% | 39.1% | D+18.6 |
| Precinct -S2S2 | 391 | 212 | 6 | 609 | 64.2% | 34.8% | D+29.4 |
| Precinct -W2W2 | 241 | 184 | 11 | 436 | 55.3% | 42.2% | D+13.1 |
| Precinct -0101 | 118 | 309 | 7 | 434 | 27.2% | 71.2% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -E1E1 | 217 | 184 | 7 | 408 | 53.2% | 45.1% | D+8.1 |
| Precinct -0202 | 119 | 253 | 12 | 384 | 31.0% | 65.9% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -C1C1 | 269 | 91 | 8 | 368 | 73.1% | 24.7% | D+48.4 |
| Precinct -C2C2 | 124 | 73 | 9 | 206 | 60.2% | 35.4% | D+24.8 |
| Precinct -E2E2 | 119 | 63 | 6 | 188 | 63.3% | 33.5% | D+29.8 |
| VTD-precinct W01W1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-precinct W02W2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-precinct W03W3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Central 2C2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Central C-1C1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northeast - NE246_46027VTDNE2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northwest - NW146_46027VTDNW1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northwest - NW246_46027VTDNW2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Southeast - SE-146_46027VTDSE1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Southeast - SE-246_46027VTDSE2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Clay County, SD · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
65.7%
3,040 votes · D+33.0
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 61.0%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
77.4%
1,723 votes · R+61.2
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 70.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
3,808votes
61.0% of the vote · D+24.2
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 3,315 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
3,302votes
70.0% of the vote · R+40.1
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 3,057 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+28.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+5.7 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · +21.5 pts
Republican
Benjamin Harrison1892
+45.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.1 · U.S. D+1.7
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · +41.5 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RSydney DavisState Senate · 17
RLauren NelsonState Senate · 18
RChris KassinState House · 17
RWilliam ShormaState House · 17
RJulie AuchState House · 18
RMike StevensState House · 18
Seats representing Clay County, SD. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 2 state senate and 2 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%3,750 | 3,750 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+6.0
Presidential vote · 2024D+6.5
Clay County, SD registers Republican but votes Democratic — a 13-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
8,312 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−182 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −532 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,669 in average income, against $82,045 for residents who stayed — 44% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+24.4 on average — 31 points more Republican-leaning than Clay County, SD itself (D+6.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Minnehaha County, SD50R+12.7
- Yankton County, SD34R+25.5
- Union County, SD31R+40.7
- Lincoln County, SD20R+26.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Minnehaha County, SD84
- Yankton County, SD53
- Lincoln County, SD39
- Woodbury County, IA30
- Union County, SD27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +81 |
| 2012 | −8 |
| 2013 | −217 |
| 2014 | −119 |
| 2015 | −150 |
| 2016 | +64 |
| 2017 | −19 |
| 2018 | −89 |
| 2019 | +38 |
| 2021 | +119 |
| 2022 | +59 |
| 2023 | +80 |
| 2024 | −189 |
| 2025 | −182 |
Home to the University of South Dakota in Vermillion, Clay County tilts Democratic in a deeply red state — a pattern driven largely by student population and academic employment concentrated in a single small city.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 61.2 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.5 points.
A population of 15,219, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,850 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Story County and Blue Earth County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Story County
Iowa
92.7twin score
median age2016–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Blue Earth County
Minnesota
89.0twin score
2004–2024 trajectory≠ median age
Johnson County
Iowa
88.2twin score
2004–2016 trajectory≠ 2024 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, South Dakota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/46027/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Clay County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, South Dakota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, South Dakota voted Democratic by 6.5 points (D+6.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 5,657 votes cast, 2,944 went Democratic and 2,574 went Republican.
When did Clay County, South Dakota last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, South Dakota voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Clay County, South Dakota?
Clay County, South Dakota has a population of 15,219 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, South Dakota?
Median household income in Clay County, South Dakota is $56,850 — below the national median of $80,734. The South Dakota state median is $75,081.
What is the political history of Clay County, South Dakota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, South Dakota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.