a places collection · custom geography · 2020 → 2024
Fast-growing suburbs that trended toward Harris
Fast-growing U.S. suburbs that each bucked 2024’s rightward tide and moved toward Harris — powered by new residents filling new subdivisions, not by incumbents changing their minds.
combined 2024 margin across 23 members — still net-Republican, but moving left against the national tide
The fastest-growing (electorate up ≥40%) — the bluest, most competitive cut.
- member suburbs
- 23
- across 8 states
- combined 2024 margin
- R+0.5
- summed major-party votes
- swing toward Harris
- −2.2
- vs ≈ R+4.7 nationally
- 2024 votes
- 162,900
- +38,409 vs 2020
- total population
- 319,444
- ACS 2024
- aggregate white share
- 59.9%
- population-weighted
- bachelor's+ (aggregate)
- 53.9%
- population-weighted
- median income
- $55k–$250k
- range · avg ≈ $146k
The members
| Suburb | County | 2020 | 2024 | Swing → Harris | Vote growth | Median inc | White | Hispanic | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Colony TX | Brazoria County | D+3.3 | D+27.7 | +24.4 | +68% | $144k | 24.8% | 22.5% | 12,891 |
| Sonterra TX | Williamson County | R+31.2 | R+17.9 | +13.3 | +44% | $92k | 45.9% | 38.7% | 10,563 |
| Aubrey TX | Denton County | R+36.4 | R+25.3 | +11.1 | +40% | $102k | 62.8% | 6.0% | 7,396 |
| Dayton MN | Hennepin County | R+6.3 | D+3.6 | +9.9 | +46% | $149k | 74.6% | 9.0% | 9,095 |
| Tehaleh WA | Pierce County | D+8.7 | D+17.2 | +8.5 | +54% | $156k | 71.0% | 6.8% | 9,561 |
| Travis Ranch TX | Kaufman County | R+6.0 | D+0.9 | +6.9 | +66% | $84k | 33.7% | 25.1% | 9,025 |
| Timnath CO | Larimer County | R+6.2 | D+0.5 | +6.6 | +45% | $178k | 86.8% | 3.4% | 8,941 |
| Heartland TX | Kaufman County | D+15.7 | D+21.9 | +6.1 | +56% | $93k | 24.9% | 31.7% | 10,607 |
| Conning Towers-Nautilus Park CT | Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | D+17.6 | D+23.6 | +6.0 | +63% | $82k | 62.2% | 19.2% | 8,460 |
| Pea Ridge AR | Benton County | R+54.3 | R+48.4 | +5.9 | +43% | $96k | 70.8% | 7.9% | 8,108 |
| Massanetta Springs VA | Rockingham County | R+9.0 | R+3.4 | +5.6 | +22% | $115k | 84.2% | 7.3% | 6,358 |
| Lavon TX | Collin County | R+38.1 | R+32.7 | +5.4 | +52% | $131k | 52.9% | 25.9% | 6,498 |
| Van Alstyne TX | Collin County | R+59.8 | R+55.7 | +4.1 | +42% | $102k | 67.1% | 20.5% | 5,952 |
| Royse City TX | Collin County | R+45.5 | R+42.1 | +3.5 | +40% | $117k | 62.7% | 23.0% | 20,037 |
| Josephine TX | Collin County | R+53.8 | R+50.4 | +3.4 | +92% | $91k | 64.6% | 19.4% | 5,842 |
| Fulshear TX | Fort Bend County | R+30.8 | R+28.9 | +1.8 | +58% | $187k | 53.8% | 21.8% | 34,868 |
| Bulverde TX | Comal County | R+53.3 | R+51.6 | +1.7 | +42% | $112k | 74.5% | 17.6% | 6,486 |
| Abingdon VA | Washington County | R+32.7 | R+31.3 | +1.4 | +5% | $55k | 91.0% | 0.9% | 8,330 |
| Northlake TX | Denton County | R+37.6 | R+36.2 | +1.4 | +77% | $123k | 59.2% | 22.2% | 8,283 |
| Anna TX | Collin County | R+28.0 | R+27.5 | +0.6 | +49% | $106k | 60.3% | 19.4% | 24,330 |
| Covington LA | St. Tammany Parish | R+26.5 | R+26.3 | +0.2 | +41% | $76k | 74.9% | 6.7% | 11,658 |
| McLean VA | Fairfax County | D+40.3 | D+37.3 | −3.1 | +6% | $250k | 65.8% | 5.6% | 49,627 |
| Oakton VA | Fairfax County | D+43.8 | D+38.3 | −5.5 | +3% | $161k | 53.5% | 11.0% | 36,528 |
How this collection was built
A city is included when it (1) trended toward Harris — a positive 2020→2024 margin swing, (2) had a fast-growing electorate — 2024 votes up by at least the tier threshold vs 2020, and (3) had a real electorate of ≥800 votes in 2024. Growth is measured by votes, a close proxy for new-rooftop population in these master-planned exurbs.
The aggregate margin and swing are computed from the members’ summed major-party votes, so margins add up exactly; modern city figures are precinct/block-group-disaggregated. Population and race/education shares are population-weighted (also exact). Income is shown as a range plus a population-weighted average of member medians — an approximation, never a manufactured “collection median.”
- Richfield, UTimplausible-growth(>120%)
- Kiryas Joel, NYnot-a-suburb (Hasidic religious village)
- Prairie View, TXnot-a-suburb (HBCU college town)
- Cusseta-Chattahoochee County unified government, GAmilitary-base
- Fort Stewart, GAmilitary-base
Elections: MIT Election Lab, precinct→block-group-disaggregated to place (2020, 2024). Demographics: Census ACS 2024 5-year. Swing = 2024 margin − 2020 margin, margin = (Dem − Rep) ÷ total votes; positive is a move toward Harris. Individual city margins are disaggregated estimates; the collection-level vote rollup is exact given those inputs.