Arkansas — Governor
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 98% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Sarah Huckabee SandersRIncumbentNominee |
| Fredrick LoveDNominee |
| Colt ShelbyLibertarianNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is running for re-election and won the GOP nomination unopposed. Primary held March 3, 2026. Democrat Fredrick Love (state senator) won his primary with ~81%. Libertarian Colt Shelby also on the general ballot. Sanders heavily favored. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AR state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Sarah Huckabee SandersR | R+28 |
| 2018 | Governor Asa HutchinsonR | R+34 |
| 2014 | Asa HutchinsonR | R+14 |
| 2010 | Mike BeebeD | D+31 |
| 2006 | Mike BeebeD | D+15 |
| 2002 | Mike HuckabeeR | R+6 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →