AkashicArkansas — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 2%; raw Republican YES price 95%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Sarah Huckabee SandersRIncumbentNominee |
| Fredrick LoveDNominee |
| Colt ShelbyLibertarianNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is running for re-election and won the GOP nomination unopposed. Primary held March 3, 2026. Democrat Fredrick Love (state senator) won his primary with ~81%. Libertarian Colt Shelby also on the general ballot. Sanders heavily favored. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Sarah Huckabee SandersR | R+28 |
| 2018 | Governor Asa HutchinsonR | R+34 |
| 2014 | Asa HutchinsonR | R+14 |
| 2010 | Mike BeebeD | D+31 |
| 2006 | Mike BeebeD | D+15 |
| 2002 | Mike HuckabeeR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →