Arkansas
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +27.6% |
| 1896 | +48.6% |
| 1900 | +28.5% |
| 1904 | +15.2% |
| 1908 | +20.3% |
| 1912 | +35.9% |
| 1916 | +40.9% |
| 1920 | +18.9% |
| 1924 | +31.9% |
| 1928 | +20.9% |
| 1932 | +73.9% |
| 1936 | +63.9% |
| 1940 | +57.4% |
| 1944 | +40.1% |
| 1948 | +40.7% |
| 1952 | +12.1% |
| 1956 | +6.6% |
| 1960 | +7.1% |
| 1964 | +12.7% |
| 1968 | −0.4% |
| 1972 | −38.1% |
| 1976 | +30.0% |
| 1980 | −0.6% |
| 1984 | −22.2% |
| 1988 | −14.2% |
| 1992 | +17.7% |
| 1996 | +16.9% |
| 2000 | −5.4% |
| 2004 | −9.8% |
| 2008 | −19.9% |
| 2012 | −23.7% |
| 2016 | −27.8% |
| 2020 | −27.6% |
| 2024 | −30.6% |
On the ballot
Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is running for re-election and won the GOP nomination unopposed. Primary held March 3, 2026. Democrat Fredrick Love (state senator) won his primary with ~81%. Libertarian Colt Shelby also on the general ballot. Sanders heavily favored.
Incumbent Tom Cotton (R) won the March 3, 2026 primary (81.6%) seeking a third term. Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary (78.3%). Jeff Wadlin was nominated by the Libertarian Party of Arkansas convention (Feb 22, 2026) and is on the general ballot.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R 4 | 31.3% | 66.8% | 1,144,800 | |
| R 4 | 30.4% | 66.8% | 895,102 | |
| R 4 | 28.0% | 70.2% | 1,179,396 | |
| R 4 | 35.2% | 62.6% | 889,298 |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 1,786,840 |
| 2020 | 1,831,414 |
| 2022 | 1,805,777 |
| 2024 | 1,835,723 |
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+14,475 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +89,955 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +5,996 |
| 2012 | −1,293 |
| 2013 | −2,150 |
| 2014 | −3,371 |
| 2015 | −106 |
| 2016 | +1,069 |
| 2017 | +3,981 |
| 2018 | +2,294 |
| 2019 | +2,515 |
| 2021 | +16,218 |
| 2022 | +18,583 |
| 2023 | +17,825 |
| 2024 | +13,919 |
| 2025 | +14,475 |
The only state to give either party a majority in 1992 went to Donald Trump by 30.6 points in 2024.
- The lone majority, 1992
- Clinton 53.2% — the only state either party cleared 50% in the Perot three-way · MIT Election Lab
- Swing since 1992
- D+17.7 (1992) → R+30.6 (2024), a 48-point reversal in margin · MIT Election Lab
- Solidly Republican now
- All seven statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and all four U.S. House seats · Akashic officeholder roster, 2026
- Among the poorest
- Median household income $60,773 — 47th of 50; bachelor’s degrees 48th · ACS 2024 5-year
- Bible Belt
- 38.2% Evangelical adherents — 4th-highest of any state · 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- Springdale’s Marshallese
- The largest Marshallese community in the U.S., drawn by poultry work · ACS 2024; Encyclopedia of Arkansas
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/AR/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.