AkashicHawaii — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 5%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Josh GreenDIncumbentNominee |
| Gary CorderyRNominee |
Declared candidates. Gov. Josh Green won the Aug 8 Democratic primary with 81.7%. Gary Cordery took the Republican primary with 66.6%. No nonpartisan candidate met the HRS 12-41 threshold. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Josh Luke GreenD | D+26 |
| 2018 | Ige / GreenD | D+29 |
| 2014 | David IgeD | D+12 |
| 2010 | Neil AbercrombieD | D+17 |
| 2006 | Linda LingleR | R+27 |
| 2002 | Linda LingleR | R+5 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →