Hawaii
Presidential margin, 1960–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1960 | +0.1% |
| 1964 | +57.5% |
| 1968 | +21.1% |
| 1972 | −25.0% |
| 1976 | +2.5% |
| 1980 | +1.9% |
| 1984 | −11.3% |
| 1988 | +9.5% |
| 1992 | +11.4% |
| 1996 | +25.3% |
| 2000 | +18.3% |
| 2004 | +8.7% |
| 2008 | +45.2% |
| 2012 | +42.7% |
| 2016 | +32.2% |
| 2020 | +29.5% |
| 2024 | +23.1% |
On the ballot
Incumbent Josh Green (D) is running for re-election to a second term and is the heavy favorite/presumptive nominee (rated Safe/Solid D); he faces only minor Democratic primary opposition. The Aug 8 primary has not occurred. Republicans are not seriously contesting; Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama are minor GOP candidates with no clear frontrunner.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 2 | 69.0% | 29.2% | 478,766 | |
| D 2 | 67.8% | 30.9% | 401,174 | |
| D 2 | 67.4% | 29.5% | 526,535 | |
| D 2 | 75.3% | 22.8% | 382,332 |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 751,483 |
| 2018 | 756,751 |
| 2020 | 832,466 |
| 2022 | 861,475 |
| 2024 | 861,333 |
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−8,876 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −124,412 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −889 |
| 2012 | −3,061 |
| 2013 | −764 |
| 2014 | −5,709 |
| 2015 | −6,817 |
| 2016 | −11,455 |
| 2017 | −14,452 |
| 2018 | −12,910 |
| 2019 | −13,817 |
| 2021 | −9,849 |
| 2022 | −15,999 |
| 2023 | −11,328 |
| 2024 | −8,486 |
| 2025 | −8,876 |
Kennedy carried the new state by 115 votes in 1960; Hawaii has voted Democratic in every election since but two.
- Democratic since its first vote
- D+0.1 in 1960 (a 115-vote win) → D+23.1 in 2024; Republican only in 1972 and 1984 · MIT Election Lab
- The 2024 shift
- D+29.5 (2020) → D+23.1 (2024) — a 6.4-pt move toward Trump, near the national average · MIT Election Lab
- Where it moved
- All four counties moved toward Trump — Maui D+35.4→D+25.9, Honolulu D+26.9→D+21.7; none flipped · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The only Asian-plurality state
- Asian 36.4% (Filipino 14.3, Japanese 11.7); no group a majority — Two or more races 21%, White 20.9% · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002)
- Largest Native Hawaiian share
- Native Hawaiian 6.1%; the U.S. center of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander population · ACS 2024 5-year
- Affluent and secular
- Median household income $100,389 (4th of 50, vs $80,734 U.S.); 59.7% claim no religion · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Hawaii. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/HI/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.