Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
49.5%522,236 participants ÷ 1,054,555 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+16.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
33.0%–39.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
39.2%
40.3%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
522,236
1,054,555 ± 4,833
49.5%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
423,443
1,050,736 ± 4,554
40.3%
Audited
E/A
580,098
1,020,517 ± 4,958
56.8%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
398,657
1,016,556 ± 4,203
39.2%
Audited
E/A
437,697
1,006,727 ± 3,453
43.5%
Audited
E/A
434,227
962,732
45.1%
Derived
—
452,761
907,442
49.9%
Derived
—
428,565
852,152 extrapolated
50.3%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 287/227.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 284/182.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 281/1.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 278/137.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 275/110.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Hawaii · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
78.8%
163,249 votes · D+57.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 71.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
62.5%
168,865 votes · R+25.0
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 55.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
366,130votes
63.7% of the vote · D+29.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 325,201 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
196,864votes
34.3% of the vote · D+29.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 194,116 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+38.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.7 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +38.0 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+1.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+25.0 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · +0.1 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governor
DJosh GreennomineeRGary Corderynominee
Gov. Josh Green won the Aug 8 Democratic primary with 81.7%. Gary Cordery took the Republican primary with 66.6%. No nonpartisan candidate met the HRS 12-41 threshold.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0. Seat totals count district winners; vote shares aggregate every district.
Year
Seats won
D %
R %
Total
D 2
69.0%
29.2%
478,766
D 2
67.8%
30.9%
401,174
D 2
67.4%
29.5%
526,535
D 2
75.3%
22.8%
382,332
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Hawaii · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Presidential nominating contests in Hawaii, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
2020 field
35,044 votes cast across 4 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Biden✓21,21560.5%
Sanders12,33735.2%
All others1,4924.3%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 4 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Earlier cycles — 2016, 2008
2016 field
33,713 votes cast across 4 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Sanders✓23,52169.8%
Clinton10,12630.0%
All others660.2%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Caucus figures follow the state party’s reported measure, which can be state-delegate equivalents rather than raw attendees — shares are the honest comparison. Shares are of the 4 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
2008 field
37,426 votes cast across 4 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Obama✓26,54770.9%
Clinton8,83523.6%
All others2030.5%
Edwards410.1%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Caucus figures follow the state party’s reported measure, which can be state-delegate equivalents rather than raw attendees — shares are the honest comparison. Shares are of the 4 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Ctrl/⌘ + scroll · drag to pan
2020Democratic primary leaderBidencolor = leader · depth = size of the lead
Every county with reported returns, filled by the candidate who led it — the most recent cycle Akashic carries here. Depth is the size of the lead, not a party margin; the surrounding faint geography is context, not coverage.
A county's fill says who led it and by how much. It does not say how the rest of the field did there — those shares are published statewide only.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Hawaii
Year
Total registered
2016
751,483
2018
756,751
2020
832,466
2022
861,475
2024
861,333
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−8,876 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −124,412 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Domestic migration in Hawaii in Hawaii: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−889
2012
−3,061
2013
−764
2014
−5,709
2015
−6,817
2016
−11,455
2017
−14,452
2018
−12,910
2019
−13,817
2021
−9,849
2022
−15,999
2023
−11,328
2024
−8,486
2025
−8,876
Kennedy carried the new state by 115 votes in 1960; Hawaii has voted Democratic in every election since but two.
Democratic since its first vote
D+0.1 in 1960 (a 115-vote win) → D+23.1 in 2024; Republican only in 1972 and 1984 · MIT Election Lab
The 2024 shift
D+29.5 (2020) → D+23.1 (2024) — a 6.4-pt move toward Trump, near the national average · MIT Election Lab
Where it moved
All four counties moved toward Trump — Maui D+35.4→D+25.9, Honolulu D+26.9→D+21.7; none flipped · MIT Election Lab 2024
The only Asian-plurality state
Asian 36.4% (Filipino 14.3, Japanese 11.7); no group a majority — Two or more races 21%, White 20.9% · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002)
Largest Native Hawaiian share
Native Hawaiian 6.1%; the U.S. center of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander population · ACS 2024 5-year
Affluent and secular
Median household income $100,389 (4th of 50, vs $80,734 U.S.); 59.7% claim no religion · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
Akashic
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hawaii. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/HI/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, Hawaii voted Democratic by 23.1 points (D+23.1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 516,701 votes cast, 313,044 went Democratic and 193,661 went Republican.
When did Hawaii last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Hawaii voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Hawaii?
Hawaii has a population of 1,445,168 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hawaii?
Median household income in Hawaii is $100,389 — above the national median of $80,734. The Hawaii state median is $100,389.
What is the political history of Hawaii?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Hawaii from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 2 went Republican.
