AkashicIdaho — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 3%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Brad LittleRIncumbentNominee |
| Terri PickensDNominee |
| John StegnerIndependent |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Brad Little (R) won the May 19 primary (~59%) for a third term; Democrat Terri Pickens won her primary (~61%). Notable independent: retired Idaho Supreme Court Justice John Stegner is a confirmed general-election candidate (strong fundraising). Minor general-election candidates also include a Libertarian, an independent, and a Constitution Party candidate. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →