AkashicKansas — Governor
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 25%; raw Republican YES price 76%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Cindy HolscherDNominee |
| Ty MastersonRNominee |
| Ethan CorsonD |
| Vicki SchmidtR |
| Scott SchwabR |
| Charlotte O'HaraR |
Declared candidates. Open seat; Gov. Laura Kelly (D) term-limited. State Sen. Cindy Holscher won the Democratic primary 48.6%-38.8% over Ethan Corson. Senate President Ty Masterson won the GOP primary with 43.2% over Philip Sarnecki (22.4%), Vicki Schmidt (13.7%) and Scott Schwab (10.9%). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Laura KellyD | D+2 |
| 2018 | Laura Kelly/Lynn RogersD | D+5 |
| 2014 | Sam BrownbackR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Sam BrownbackR | R+31 |
| 2006 | Kathleen SebeliusD | D+18 |
| 2002 | Kathleen SebeliusD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →