AkashicNew Mexico — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 90%; raw Republican YES price 9%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Deb HaalandDNominee |
| Gregg HullRNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary (~72%) over Sam Bregman; she would be the first Native American woman elected governor of any state. Former Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (note: 'Gregg' with two g's) won the GOP primary (~47%) over Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Independent Ken Miyagishima failed to qualify for the ballot (court denied his signature petition; appeal pending) and is excluded. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Michelle Lujan GrishamD | D+6 |
| 2018 | Michelle Lujan Grisham And Howie C MoralesD | D+14 |
| 2014 | Susana MartínezR | R+14 |
| 2010 | Susana MartinezR | R+7 |
| 2006 | Bill RichardsonD | D+38 |
| 2002 | Bill RichardsonD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →