Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
59.7%927,923 participants ÷ 1,553,240 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+15.3 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
44.5%–48.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
47.0%
46.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
927,923
1,553,240 ± 4,324
59.7%
Audited
B/A
2022Mid
709,556
1,538,095 ± 5,157
46.1%
Audited
B/A
928,230
1,511,406 ± 4,473
61.4%
Audited
B/A
2018Mid
697,681
1,485,490 ± 3,749
47.0%
Audited
B/A
804,073
1,464,241 ± 3,901
54.9%
Audited
B/A
783,757
1,420,961
55.2%
Derived
—
830,158
1,348,771
61.5%
Derived
—
756,304
1,276,581 extrapolated
59.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
New Mexico · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
62.7%
95,089 votes · D+27.0
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 62.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
61.0%
235,606 votes · R+24.5
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 59.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
501,614votes
54.3% of the vote · D+10.8
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 478,802 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
423,391votes
45.9% of the vote · D+6.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 401,894 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+19.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.5 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +15.8 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+14.1pts R vs U.S.
Place D+5.5 · U.S. D+19.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · +11.4 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governoropen seat
DDeb HaalandnomineeRGregg Hullnominee
OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary (~72%) over Sam Bregman; she would be the first Native American woman elected governor of any state. Former Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (note: 'Gregg' with two g's) won the GOP primary (~47%) over Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Independent Ken Miyagishima failed to qualify for the ballot (court denied his signature petition; appeal pending) and is excluded.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0. Seat totals count district winners; vote shares aggregate every district.
Year
Seats won
D %
R %
Total
D 3
55.1%
44.9%
896,498
D 3
55.1%
44.9%
704,126
D 2 · R 1
54.9%
45.1%
903,684
D 3
58.3%
38.2%
693,311
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
New Mexico · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Presidential nominating contests in New Mexico, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
2020 field
247,880 votes cast across 33 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Biden✓181,70073.3%
Sanders37,43515.1%
Warren14,5525.9%
All others7,4323.0%
Yang4,0261.6%
Gabbard2,7351.1%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 33 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Earlier cycles — 2016, 2008
2016 field
216,075 votes cast across 33 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Clinton✓111,33451.5%
Sanders104,74148.5%
Shares are of the 33 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
2008 field
149,120 votes cast across 33 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Clinton✓72,99748.9%
Obama71,26847.8%
All others4,8553.3%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 33 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Ctrl/⌘ + scroll · drag to pan
2020Democratic primary leaderBidencolor = leader · depth = size of the lead
Every county with reported returns, filled by the candidate who led it — the most recent cycle Akashic carries here. Depth is the size of the lead, not a party margin; the surrounding faint geography is context, not coverage.
A county's fill says who led it and by how much. It does not say how the rest of the field did there — those shares are published statewide only.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+9.3
vs
Presidential vote · 2024D+6.0
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 3.3 points more Republican than the rolls.
Domestic migration in New Mexico in New Mexico: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+493
2012
−7,247
2013
−10,583
2014
−13,779
2015
−12,431
2016
−7,165
2017
−7,499
2018
−5,244
2019
−2,136
2021
−978
2022
−4,615
2023
−1,524
2024
−1,874
2025
−2,267
Nearly half of New Mexicans are Hispanic or Latino — the largest share of any state — and the Democratic margin narrowed from 10.8 points to 6.0 as the state moved toward Trump in 2024.
Narrowed but held
D+10.8 (2020) → D+6.0 (2024) — a 4.8-point move toward Trump, with the national shift across Hispanic areas · MIT Election Lab
Hispanic or Latino
48.4% of residents — the largest share of any state; 32.4% Mexican origin, plus the colonial-era Hispano families (Spanish 4.2%, Spaniard 3.6%) · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002 / B04006)
The Hispano north and Albuquerque
Santa Fe D+48.9 (bluest), Taos D+47.5; Bernalillo — Albuquerque — D+21.0 · MIT Election Lab 2024
Little Texas
The southeastern oil counties run Republican — Lea R+61.6 (reddest), Eddy R+55.8, Chaves R+44.8 · MIT Election Lab 2024
The Navajo northwest moved
McKinley County (Navajo Nation): D+38.6 (2020) → D+24.5 (2024); Doña Ana, on the border, D+18.3 → D+9.8 · MIT Election Lab
Open governor in 2026
Lujan Grisham term-limited — Deb Haaland (D), former U.S. Interior Secretary, vs Gregg Hull (R); Sen. Luján (D) seeks a 2nd term · Akashic 2026 forecast
Akashic
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/NM/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, New Mexico voted Democratic by 6.0 points (D+6.0), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 923,403 votes cast, 478,802 went Democratic and 423,391 went Republican.
When did New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which New Mexico voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in New Mexico?
New Mexico has a population of 2,120,246 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in New Mexico?
Median household income in New Mexico is $64,059 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in New Mexico from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.
