AkashicVermont — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 10%; raw Republican YES price 86%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Phil ScottRIncumbentNominee |
| Amanda JanooDNominee |
| Aly RichardsD |
Declared candidates. Gov. Phil Scott, seeking a sixth term, took 98.5% of the GOP primary. Economist Amanda Janoo, Progressive-endorsed, upset Aly Richards 49.1%-46.6% in the Democratic primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Phil ScottR | R+50 |
| 2022 | Phil ScottR | R+47 |
| 2020 | Phil ScottR | R+41 |
| 2018 | Phil ScottR | R+15 |
| 2016 | Phil ScottR | R+9 |
| 2014 | Peter ShumlinD | D+1 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →