Vermont
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −38.8% |
| 1896 | −63.4% |
| 1900 | −52.9% |
| 1904 | −59.1% |
| 1908 | −53.3% |
| 1912 | −12.7% |
| 1916 | −27.2% |
| 1920 | −52.6% |
| 1924 | −62.5% |
| 1928 | −34.0% |
| 1932 | −16.6% |
| 1936 | −13.2% |
| 1940 | −9.9% |
| 1944 | −14.1% |
| 1948 | −24.6% |
| 1952 | −43.2% |
| 1956 | −44.3% |
| 1960 | −17.3% |
| 1964 | +32.6% |
| 1968 | −9.2% |
| 1972 | −26.2% |
| 1976 | −11.2% |
| 1980 | −6.0% |
| 1984 | −17.1% |
| 1988 | −3.5% |
| 1992 | +15.7% |
| 1996 | +22.3% |
| 2000 | +9.9% |
| 2004 | +20.1% |
| 2008 | +37.0% |
| 2012 | +35.6% |
| 2016 | +26.4% |
| 2020 | +35.4% |
| 2024 | +31.5% |
On the ballot
Not an open seat: Vermont has 2-year terms with no term limit; popular moderate incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R) announced May 28 2026 he is running for a 6th term, with no serious primary challenger (presumptive). The Democratic primary (Aug 11, not held) is contested with no clear front-runner (declared Democrats include Aly Richards, Amanda Janoo, and Jeffrey Wilson). Scott routinely wins this blue state by wide margins.
U.S. House
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 474,436 |
| 2018 | 491,253 |
| 2020 | 491,483 |
| 2022 | 503,698 |
| 2024 | 503,249 |
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−726 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −5,258 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −594 |
| 2012 | −1,756 |
| 2013 | −537 |
| 2014 | −1,719 |
| 2015 | −2,162 |
| 2016 | −2,212 |
| 2017 | −854 |
| 2018 | −179 |
| 2019 | −682 |
| 2021 | +4,838 |
| 2022 | +1,111 |
| 2023 | +782 |
| 2024 | −568 |
| 2025 | −726 |
Vermont gave Kamala Harris the widest margin of any state — and is the state most likely to re-elect a Republican governor by an equally wide one.
- Most Democratic state in 2024
- D+31.5 — the widest Democratic presidential margin of any of the 50 states, behind only D.C. nationally; D+35.4 in 2020 · MIT Election Lab
- Democratic for president since 1992
- Every election from Bill Clinton’s D+15.7 in 1992 onward; first-ever Democratic vote in 1964 (D+32.6), Republican every prior cycle · MIT Election Lab
- Chittenden is the bluest, and the largest
- Burlington’s county voted D+53.1 — the widest in the state — and cast ~26% of the statewide vote · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Even the reddest county is mild
- Essex County R+15.9 — the state’s widest Republican margin; Orleans only R+1.5; just 2 of 14 counties Republican · MIT Election Lab 2024
- White, old, and unaffiliated
- 90% White; median age 43.4 (3rd of 50); 62.4% claim no religion (7th of 50); 44.1% hold a bachelor’s (3rd) · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- A Republican governor in 2026
- Gov. Phil Scott (R), in office since 2017, is the presumptive nominee for a 6th term; the Democratic primary is unsettled; no Senate race · Akashic 2026 forecast
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Vermont. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/VT/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.