Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
70.8%369,422 participants ÷ 521,798 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+18.6 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
52.2%–56.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
54.3%
55.4%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
369,422
521,798 ± 1,388
70.8%
Audited
C/A
2022Mid
286,300
516,776 ± 1,343
55.4%
Audited
B/A
368,075
497,391 ± 1,492
74.0%
Audited
B/A
2018Mid
268,758
494,674 ± 1,050
54.3%
Audited
B/A
320,467
493,535 ± 1,125
64.9%
Audited
B/A
299,290
487,804
61.4%
Derived
—
325,046
479,715
67.8%
Derived
—
312,309
471,626 extrapolated
66.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 155/227.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Vermont · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
67.5%
219,262 votes · D+37.0
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 66.6%
Republican
William McKinley1896
80.1%
51,127 votes · R+63.4
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 78.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
242,820votes
66.1% of the vote · D+35.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 235,791 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
135,865votes
58.0% of the vote · R+17.1
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 124,331 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Gov. Phil Scott, seeking a sixth term, took 98.5% of the GOP primary. Economist Amanda Janoo, Progressive-endorsed, upset Aly Richards 49.1%-46.6% in the Democratic primary.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
At-large
D
62.3%218,398
29.8%104,451
350,616
2022
At-large
D
62.6%176,494
27.8%78,397
282,026
2020
At-large
D
67.3%238,827
27.0%95,830
354,837
2018
At-large
D
69.2%188,547
26.0%70,705
272,451
2016
At-large
D
89.5%264,414
0.0%0
295,334
2014
At-large
D
64.4%123,349
31.0%59,432
191,504
2012
At-large
D
71.9%208,600
23.3%67,543
289,931
2010
At-large
D
64.6%154,006
32.0%76,403
238,521
2008
At-large
D
83.2%248,203
0.0%0
298,151
2006
At-large
D
53.2%139,815
44.5%117,023
262,726
2004
At-large
O
7.1%21,684
24.4%74,271
305,008
2002
At-large
O
0.0%0
32.3%72,813
225,255
2000
At-large
O
5.3%14,918
18.3%51,977
283,366
1998
At-large
O
0.0%0
32.9%70,740
215,133
1996
At-large
O
9.4%23,830
32.6%83,021
254,706
1994
At-large
O
0.0%0
46.6%98,523
211,449
1992
At-large
O
7.9%22,279
30.9%86,901
281,162
1990
At-large
O
3.0%6,315
39.5%82,938
209,856
1988
At-large
R
18.9%45,330
41.2%98,937
240,131
1986
At-large
R
0.0%0
89.1%168,403
188,954
1984
At-large
R
26.7%60,360
65.4%148,025
226,297
1982
At-large
R
23.2%38,296
69.2%114,191
164,951
1980
At-large
R
0.0%0
79.2%154,274
194,697
1978
At-large
R
19.3%23,228
75.3%90,688
120,502
1976
At-large
R
32.6%60,202
67.4%124,458
184,783
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Vermont · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Presidential nominating contests in Vermont, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
2020 field
157,652 votes cast across 14 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Sanders✓79,92150.7%
Biden34,66922.0%
Warren19,78512.6%
Bloomberg14,8289.4%
Buttigieg3,7092.4%
Klobuchar1,9911.3%
Gabbard1,3030.8%
All others6530.4%
Yang5910.4%
Steyer2020.1%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 14 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Earlier cycles — 2016, 2008
2016 field
134,838 votes cast across 14 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Sanders✓115,90086.0%
Clinton18,33813.6%
All others6000.4%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 14 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
2008 field
154,960 votes cast across 14 counties reporting. The universe is the party's primary electorate, not everyone who lives here, so this is not comparable to a general-election turnout without that in mind.
Obama✓91,90159.3%
Clinton59,80638.6%
All others3,2532.1%
“All others” is a residual bucket, not a candidate: it holds every name past the ones listed, including candidates who had already withdrawn but still drew votes. Shares are of the 14 counties reporting, and describe the contest as a whole — not any one county inside it.
Ctrl/⌘ + scroll · drag to pan
2020Democratic primary leaderSanderscolor = leader · depth = size of the lead
Every county with reported returns, filled by the candidate who led it — the most recent cycle Akashic carries here. Depth is the size of the lead, not a party margin; the surrounding faint geography is context, not coverage.
A county's fill says who led it and by how much. It does not say how the rest of the field did there — those shares are published statewide only.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Vermont
Year
Total registered
2016
474,436
2018
491,253
2020
491,483
2022
503,698
2024
503,249
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−726 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −5,258 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Domestic migration in Vermont in Vermont: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−594
2012
−1,756
2013
−537
2014
−1,719
2015
−2,162
2016
−2,212
2017
−854
2018
−179
2019
−682
2021
+4,838
2022
+1,111
2023
+782
2024
−568
2025
−726
Vermont gave Kamala Harris the widest margin of any state — and is the state most likely to re-elect a Republican governor by an equally wide one.
Most Democratic state in 2024
D+31.5 — the widest Democratic presidential margin of any of the 50 states, behind only D.C. nationally; D+35.4 in 2020 · MIT Election Lab
Democratic for president since 1992
Every election from Bill Clinton’s D+15.7 in 1992 onward; first-ever Democratic vote in 1964 (D+32.6), Republican every prior cycle · MIT Election Lab
Chittenden is the bluest, and the largest
Burlington’s county voted D+53.1 — the widest in the state — and cast ~26% of the statewide vote · MIT Election Lab 2024
Even the reddest county is mild
Essex County R+15.9 — the state’s widest Republican margin; Orleans only R+1.5; just 2 of 14 counties Republican · MIT Election Lab 2024
White, old, and unaffiliated
90% White; median age 43.4 (3rd of 50); 62.4% claim no religion (7th of 50); 44.1% hold a bachelor’s (3rd) · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
A Republican governor in 2026
Gov. Phil Scott (R), in office since 2017, is the presumptive nominee for a 6th term; the Democratic primary is unsettled; no Senate race · Akashic 2026 forecast
Akashic
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Vermont. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/VT/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, Vermont voted Democratic by 31.5 points (D+31.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 369,422 votes cast, 235,791 went Democratic and 119,395 went Republican.
When did Vermont last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Vermont voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Vermont?
Vermont has a population of 647,106 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Vermont?
Median household income in Vermont is $81,203 — above the national median of $80,734. The Vermont state median is $81,203.
What is the political history of Vermont?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Vermont from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 23 went Republican.
