AZ-01 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 68% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 15-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jonathan TrebleD | |
| Jay FeelyR | |
| Marlene Galán-WoodsD | |
| Amish ShahD | |
| Rick McCartneyD | |
| John TroboughR | |
| Joseph ChaplikR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent David Schweikert withdrew from re-election (Sept 2025) to run for governor. Toss-up. Crowded contested primaries on both sides; nominees determined July 21. Shah (2024 nominee) leads Dem polling. Minor candidates omitted. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →