congressional districtArizona 1st Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+16.8
2008R+12.8
2012R+16.9
2016R+4.2
2020D+1.4
2024R+3.1
net swing · 2004→2024D+13.7R+16.8 → R+3.1
vs. U.S. · 2024R+1.6R+3.1 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 72.6% of 620,994 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
216,233
230,239
4,338
450,810
620,994
72.6%
2020
232,712
225,981
5,998
464,691
584,290†
79.5%
2016
165,628
181,214
24,624
371,466
527,546†
70.4%
2012
138,319
196,050
7,118
341,487
481,971†
70.9%
2008
147,296
191,261
4,218
342,775
463,781†
73.9%
2004
123,434
173,872
3,054
300,360
445,592†
67.4%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ-1ArizonaUnited States
German17.3%12.6%12.5%
English13.7%10.2%9.5%
Irish12.3%8.9%9.4%
Italian6.2%4.1%4.8%
American5.9%4.0%5.3%
Polish3.1%2.0%2.2%
French2.4%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.4%1.7%1.3%
Mexican13.8%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.4%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan0.3%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard0.3%0.5%—
Cuban0.2%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.2%0.3%0.7%
Spanish0.2%0.4%—
Asian Indian1.3%0.9%1.4%
Chinese0.8%0.6%1.3%
Filipino0.8%0.7%0.9%
Vietnamese0.6%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.3%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.2%0.2%0.2%
African American†2.8%3.6%9.9%
African0.2%0.3%0.5%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ-1
Arizona
United States
Median age
43.7
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.3%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.3%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ-1
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$99,999
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
8.7%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
36.7%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ-1
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
26.0%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
19.4%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.4%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ-1
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 1st Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−16.8%
2008
−12.8%
2012
−16.9%
2016
−4.2%
2020
+1.4%
2024
−3.1%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 18 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
1
R
48.1%208,966
51.9%225,538
434,504
2022
1
R
49.6%179,141
50.4%182,336
361,477
2020
1
D
51.6%188,469
48.4%176,709
365,178
2018
1
D
53.8%143,240
46.1%122,784
266,089
2016
1
D
50.7%142,219
43.4%121,745
280,710
2014
1
D
52.6%97,391
47.4%87,723
185,114
2012
1
D
48.8%122,774
45.1%113,594
251,595
2010
1
R
43.7%99,233
49.7%112,816
226,918
2008
1
D
55.9%155,791
39.4%109,924
278,787
2006
1
R
43.4%88,691
51.8%105,646
204,139
2004
1
R
36.2%91,776
58.5%148,315
253,351
2002
1
R
45.6%79,730
49.2%85,967
174,687
2000
1
R
42.4%97,455
53.6%123,289
229,971
1998
1
R
35.4%54,108
64.6%98,840
152,948
1996
1
R
39.8%89,738
60.2%135,634
225,372
1994
1
R
39.0%70,627
56.0%101,350
180,867
1992
1
D
51.3%130,715
44.6%113,613
254,789
1990
1
R
0.0%0
99.5%166,223
167,016
1988
1
R
27.9%71,388
72.1%184,639
256,027
1986
1
R
28.7%51,163
71.3%127,370
178,533
1984
1
R
21.9%45,609
78.1%162,418
208,027
1982
1
R
30.5%41,261
65.9%89,116
135,227
1980
1
R
21.4%40,045
73.3%136,961
186,833
1978
1
R
29.0%33,178
71.0%81,108
114,286
1976
1
R
40.7%68,404
57.3%96,397
168,119
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
51.5%230,005
46.6%207,860
446,199
2022
D
51.4%1,322,027
46.5%1,196,328
2,572,294
2020
D
51.2%1,716,634
48.8%1,638,060
3,355,307
2018
D
50.0%1,191,100
47.6%1,135,200
2,383,742
2016
R
40.8%1,031,245
53.8%1,359,761
2,529,768
2012
R
46.2%1,036,542
49.2%1,104,457
2,243,108
2010
R
34.8%592,011
59.1%1,005,615
1,702,326
2006
R
43.5%664,141
53.3%814,398
1,526,770
2004
R
20.6%404,507
76.7%1,505,372
1,961,677
2000
R
0.0%0
79.3%1,108,196
1,397,076
1998
R
27.2%275,224
68.8%696,577
1,013,093
1994
R
39.5%442,510
53.7%600,999
1,119,002
1992
R
31.6%436,321
55.8%771,395
1,382,025
1988
D
56.7%660,403
41.1%478,060
1,164,507
1986
R
39.5%340,965
60.5%521,850
862,815
1982
D
56.9%411,970
40.3%291,749
723,819
1980
R
48.4%422,972
49.5%432,371
874,225
1976
D
54.0%400,334
43.3%321,236
741,210
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Ruben Gallego · Democrat51.5%230,005
Kari Lake · Republican46.6%207,860
Eduardo Quintana · Green1.6%7,275
Write-In0.2%958
Sarah Williams0.0%68
Christopher Beckett0.0%15
Jannie "Jannie" Prosser0.0%9
Steven Cavin Sanders0.0%7
David Bozic0.0%1
Shawn Petty0.0%1
Arizona's 1st stretches across the state's northeastern quadrant, covering Navajo Nation lands and rural ranching counties. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+4.0 reflects a competitive mix of Native American, Latino, and rural white voters that has made it a perennial swing target.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 1.4 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 16.9 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.1 points.
A population of 794,616, a 70% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,999 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 8 and Congressional District 6.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Arizona 1st Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0401/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Arizona 1st Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 1st Congressional District voted Republican by 3.1 points (R+3.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 450,810 votes cast, 216,233 went Democratic and 230,239 went Republican.
When did Arizona 1st Congressional District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona 1st Congressional District voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Arizona 1st Congressional District?
Arizona 1st Congressional District has a population of 794,616 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 1st Congressional District?
Median household income in Arizona 1st Congressional District is $99,999 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 1st Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 1st Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.
