AZ-02 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 63% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 21-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Eli CraneRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Jonathan NezD | |
| Eric DescheenieD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Northern/rural Arizona (Flagstaff, Navajo Nation). Incumbent Eli Crane (R) running, presumptive GOP nominee. Arizona primary is July 21, 2026 (NOT yet held). Contested Democratic primary: Jonathan Nez (former Navajo Nation president and 2024 nominee who lost to Crane 54-45, strong frontrunner) vs. Eric Descheenie (former AZ state rep). Both 'candidate' since primary not held. Watch spelling 'Descheenie'. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+9 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | Even |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →