congressional districtArizona 2nd Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+6.2
2008R+7.9
2012R+9.0
2016R+10.2
2020R+7.9
2024R+15.0
net swing · 2004→2024R+8.8R+6.2 → R+15.0
vs. U.S. · 2024R+13.5R+15.0 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 65.6% of 634,898 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
174,966
237,300
4,202
416,468
634,898
65.6%
2020
183,707
215,669
6,258
405,634
612,170†
66.3%
2016
130,288
162,512
24,307
317,107
561,332†
56.5%
2012
124,602
149,927
6,275
280,804
527,083†
53.3%
2008
127,054
149,200
5,558
281,812
486,709†
57.9%
2004
113,630
128,744
2,428
244,802
446,336†
54.8%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ-2ArizonaUnited States
German14.5%12.6%12.5%
English12.3%10.2%9.5%
Irish10.5%8.9%9.4%
American4.1%4.0%5.3%
Italian3.8%4.1%4.8%
French2.0%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.0%1.7%1.3%
Polish1.7%2.0%2.2%
Mexican14.0%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.4%0.7%1.8%
Spanish0.4%0.4%—
Spaniard0.3%0.5%—
Cuban0.2%0.3%0.7%
African American†1.7%3.6%9.9%
African0.2%0.3%0.5%
Filipino0.4%0.7%0.9%
Chinese0.2%0.6%1.3%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ-2
Arizona
United States
Median age
42.3
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.2%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
23.4%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ-2
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$67,729
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
16.6%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
27.0%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ-2
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
20.9%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
9.9%
19.3%
13.6%
Other languages
8.7%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ-2
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 2nd Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−6.2%
2008
−7.9%
2012
−9.0%
2016
−10.2%
2020
−7.9%
2024
−15.0%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 18 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
2
R
45.5%184,985
54.5%221,413
406,431
2022
2
R
46.1%149,151
53.9%174,169
323,396
2020
2
D
55.1%209,945
44.9%170,975
381,054
2018
2
D
54.7%161,000
45.2%133,083
294,152
2016
2
R
43.0%135,873
57.0%179,806
315,679
2014
2
R
49.9%109,543
50.0%109,704
219,351
2012
2
D
50.4%147,338
49.6%144,884
292,279
2010
2
R
31.1%82,891
64.9%173,173
266,894
2008
2
R
37.2%125,611
59.4%200,914
338,023
2006
2
R
38.9%89,671
58.6%135,150
230,560
2004
2
R
38.5%107,406
59.2%165,260
279,303
2002
2
R
36.5%61,217
59.9%100,359
167,502
2000
2
D
68.5%84,034
26.9%32,990
122,605
1998
2
D
67.8%57,178
28.0%23,628
84,363
1996
2
D
65.0%81,982
30.8%38,786
126,101
1994
2
D
62.3%62,589
32.7%32,797
100,446
1992
2
D
66.0%90,693
30.0%41,257
137,378
1990
2
D
65.9%76,549
34.1%39,586
116,179
1988
2
D
73.3%99,895
26.7%36,309
136,204
1986
2
D
73.3%77,239
23.3%24,522
105,407
1984
2
D
87.7%106,332
0.0%0
121,215
1982
2
D
70.9%73,468
27.4%28,407
103,674
1980
2
D
58.1%127,736
40.4%88,653
219,686
1978
2
D
52.5%67,878
45.4%58,697
129,197
1976
2
D
58.2%106,054
39.4%71,765
182,128
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
44.9%185,232
52.8%217,723
412,187
2022
D
51.4%1,322,027
46.5%1,196,328
2,572,294
2020
D
51.2%1,716,634
48.8%1,638,060
3,355,307
2018
D
50.0%1,191,100
47.6%1,135,200
2,383,742
2016
R
40.8%1,031,245
53.8%1,359,761
2,529,768
2012
R
46.2%1,036,542
49.2%1,104,457
2,243,108
2010
R
34.8%592,011
59.1%1,005,615
1,702,326
2006
R
43.5%664,141
53.3%814,398
1,526,770
2004
R
20.6%404,507
76.7%1,505,372
1,961,677
2000
R
0.0%0
79.3%1,108,196
1,397,076
1998
R
27.2%275,224
68.8%696,577
1,013,093
1994
R
39.5%442,510
53.7%600,999
1,119,002
1992
R
31.6%436,321
55.8%771,395
1,382,025
1988
D
56.7%660,403
41.1%478,060
1,164,507
1986
R
39.5%340,965
60.5%521,850
862,815
1982
D
56.9%411,970
40.3%291,749
723,819
1980
R
48.4%422,972
49.5%432,371
874,225
1976
D
54.0%400,334
43.3%321,236
741,210
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Kari Lake · Republican52.8%217,723
Ruben Gallego · Democrat44.9%185,232
Eduardo Quintana · Green2.1%8,599
Write-In0.2%633
Arizona's 2nd covers metro Tucson and stretches into surrounding Pima County, where a large university population and a growing Latino electorate have pushed presidential margins consistently leftward over the past three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 15.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 7.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.0 points.
A population of 794,590, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,729 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 2 and Congressional District 5.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona 2nd Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0402/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Arizona 2nd Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 2nd Congressional District voted Republican by 15.0 points (R+15.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 416,468 votes cast, 174,966 went Democratic and 237,300 went Republican.
How many people live in Arizona 2nd Congressional District?
Arizona 2nd Congressional District has a population of 794,590 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 2nd Congressional District?
Median household income in Arizona 2nd Congressional District is $67,729 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 2nd Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 2nd Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
