AkashicKY-04 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 7%; raw Republican YES price 93%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ed GallreinR | |
| Melissa StrangeD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Thomas Massie (R) LOST the May 19 GOP primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein (~55%-45%) in the most expensive U.S. House primary on record; Massie is not on the general ballot. Gallrein (R) faces Democrat Melissa Strange. Incumbent flag false because the sitting incumbent was defeated in the primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KY-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →