KY-04 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ed GallreinR | |
| Melissa StrangeD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Thomas Massie (R) LOST the May 19 GOP primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein (~55%-45%) in the most expensive U.S. House primary on record; Massie is not on the general ballot. Gallrein (R) faces Democrat Melissa Strange. Incumbent flag false because the sitting incumbent was defeated in the primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KY-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →