congressional districtKentucky 4th Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+31.8
2008R+24.6
2012R+29.2
2016R+36.7
2020R+32.7
2024R+35.5
net swing · 2004→2024R+3.7R+31.8 → R+35.5
vs. U.S. · 2024R+34.1R+35.5 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 65.9% of 569,017 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
117,644
250,911
6,452
375,007
569,017
65.9%
2020
122,925
245,714
6,798
375,437
553,933†
67.8%
2016
94,424
214,590
18,282
327,296
535,787†
61.1%
2012
104,803
191,367
101
296,271
517,704†
57.2%
2008
111,681
186,355
5,431
303,467
504,799†
60.1%
2004
98,043
190,707
2,467
291,217
491,894†
59.2%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupKY-4KentuckyUnited States
German23.1%12.7%12.5%
English15.6%14.5%9.5%
Irish14.1%11.0%9.4%
American9.0%11.5%5.3%
Italian3.1%2.0%4.8%
Scottish2.3%2.0%1.3%
French1.6%1.1%1.6%
Polish0.9%—2.2%
Mexican2.1%2.4%11.3%
Guatemalan0.6%0.3%0.5%
Puerto Rican0.5%0.5%1.8%
African American†2.7%6.6%9.9%
African0.2%0.5%0.5%
Asian Indian0.3%0.3%1.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
KY-4
Kentucky
United States
Median age
39.3
39.2
39.1
Age 18–24
8.0%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.5%
17.3%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
KY-4
Kentucky
United States
Median household income
$80,457
$63,726
$84,427
Poverty rate
11.1%
16.1%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
31.9%
27.7%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
KY-4
Kentucky
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
5.3%
6.8%
22.3%
Spanish
2.9%
3.4%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
KY-4
Kentucky
United States
Catholic
—
7.9%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
31.3%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
50.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Kentucky 4th Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−31.8%
2008
−24.6%
2012
−29.2%
2016
−36.7%
2020
−32.7%
2024
−35.5%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. † 2004, 2020 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for these cycles was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
4
R
0.0%0
99.6%278,386
279,517
2022
4
R
31.0%79,977
65.0%167,541
257,629
2020
4
R
32.9%125,896
67.1%256,613
382,509
2018
4
R
34.6%90,536
62.2%162,946
261,812
2016
4
R
28.7%94,065
71.3%233,922
327,987
2014
4
R
32.3%71,694
67.7%150,464
222,158
2012
4
R
35.0%104,734
62.1%186,036
299,444
2010
4
R
30.5%66,694
69.5%151,813
218,507
2008
4
R
37.0%111,549
63.0%190,210
301,759
2006
4
R
43.4%88,822
51.7%105,845
204,767
2004
4
R
43.9%129,876
54.4%160,982
295,927
2002
4
D
51.1%87,776
47.5%81,651
171,735
2000
4
D
54.3%125,872
43.5%100,943
231,963
1998
4
D
53.4%93,485
46.6%81,547
175,032
1996
4
R
31.6%68,939
68.4%149,135
218,074
1994
4
R
25.9%33,717
74.1%96,695
130,412
1992
4
R
38.4%86,890
61.6%139,634
226,524
1990
4
R
30.7%44,979
69.3%101,680
146,659
1988
4
R
25.8%50,575
74.2%145,609
196,184
1986
4
R
43.9%53,906
55.1%67,626
122,763
1984
4
R
46.3%93,640
53.7%108,398
202,038
1982
4
R
45.3%61,937
54.2%74,109
136,750
1980
4
R
33.0%62,138
67.0%126,049
188,187
1978
4
R
34.2%32,212
65.8%62,087
94,299
1976
4
R
44.1%77,009
55.9%97,493
174,502
Anchored in the Cincinnati suburbs and stretching into the Bluegrass region, KY-04 has posted presidential margins above R+30 in recent cycles, reflecting a predominantly white, non-urban electorate with durable GOP alignment at every level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 36.7 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 35.5 points.
A population of 750,994, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,457 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 7 and Congressional District 4.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Kentucky 4th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2104/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Kentucky 4th Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Kentucky 4th Congressional District voted Republican by 35.5 points (R+35.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 375,007 votes cast, 117,644 went Democratic and 250,911 went Republican.
How many people live in Kentucky 4th Congressional District?
Kentucky 4th Congressional District has a population of 750,994 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Kentucky 4th Congressional District?
Median household income in Kentucky 4th Congressional District is $80,457 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Kentucky 4th Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Kentucky 4th Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
