MI-10 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 9-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Eric ChungD | |
| Robert LulgjurajR | |
| Tim GreimelD | |
| Mike BouchardR | |
| Christina HinesD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent John James (R) is not seeking re-election, running for governor of Michigan. Highly competitive Macomb County seat; Aug 4 primary not yet held. Republican primary led by Mike Bouchard (Trump-endorsed June 22, 2026) and Robert Lulgjuraj (also Justin Kirk and Steffan Demetropoulos running). Democratic primary led by Christina Hines and Tim Greimel (Eric Chung also running). Listed candidates are the leading primary contenders. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI-10 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | Even |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+39 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →