AkashicMN-04 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Betty McCollumDIncumbentNominee | |
| Paul WikstromRNominee | not yet filing |
| Paul XiongR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. DFL-held, Solid D. Incumbent Betty McCollum running for re-election (minor DFL challenger Aswar Rahman); Republican contenders Paul Wikstrom and Paul Xiong. Primary not yet held. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MN-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+34 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →