AkashicMO-04 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 9%; raw Republican YES price 92%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Mark AlfordRIncumbentNominee | |
| Jordan HerreraDNominee | |
| Thomas HolbrookLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Republican-held, Solid R. Incumbent Mark Alford running for re-election. A large Democratic field is competing (incl. Jordan Herrera, Jeanette Cass, Hartzell Gray, Ashleigh Rogers); primary not yet held. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MO-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+45 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+45 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+38 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+40 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+42 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →