AkashicNY-04 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 80%; raw Republican YES price 20%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Laura GillenDIncumbentNominee | |
| Jeanine DriscollRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen seeking re-election; Republican Jeanine Driscoll (Hempstead Receiver of Taxes) won the GOP primary over Marvin Williams. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NY-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+17 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →